J. Miles Coleman, an analyst at Sabato's Crystal Ball, moved Florida's governor's race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican on 23 July, after a University of North Florida poll put Byron Donalds five points clear of David Jolly, 46% to 41%1. Coleman set his own limit on the reading in the same piece, writing that "we would not call Florida truly competitive". Neither party defends an incumbent governor in Florida this November, and open seats tighten as polling day nears.
Michigan went from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. Mike Duggan, the Democrat turned independent whose candidacy had split the anti-Republican vote, left the race, and the straight two-way contest that remains favours Jocelyn Benson, the secretary of state and Democratic nominee2. New Mexico moved to Safe Democratic, where Deb Haaland holds roughly a seven-to-one cash advantage over her Republican opponent and the state Republican Party is fighting itself.
Ratings services relabelling their own categories is not news in the way a court ruling is, and one university poll is thin evidence. What makes the release worth reading is that the three rationales share nothing: a poll, a withdrawal, a bank balance. Sabato's Crystal Ball moved six House seats toward the Democrats in May while calling the national map close, and these three moves do not extend that. Florida's 24R-4D congressional map stands where the Florida Supreme Court left it in June, untouched by anything in the governor's numbers. Who is running, and how well a state party has organised behind them, is doing the work here.
