Republican Party

The Republican Party controls both chambers of Congress and the presidency under Trump's second term, yet 2026 has exposed two related fractures: a war budget it cannot pass despite unified government, and a widening MAGA-versus-establishment split playing out in its own primaries. The Pentagon's Iran supplemental, cut from $200bn to an expected $80-100bn, has no scheduled vote and no congressional war authorisation.

Founded in 1854, the party's foreign-policy geography has inverted since the Iraq War era: a non-interventionist MAGA bloc, including Marjorie Taylor Greene and Tucker Carlson, called the Iran strikes 'a betrayal' , even as 85-90% of self-identified MAGA voters back the war in polling. That same base-versus-establishment fight has reshaped 2026 primaries: Ken Paxton routed incumbent John Cornyn in the Texas Senate runoff despite pro-Cornyn forces outspending him roughly nine-to-one. A June 2026 Supreme Court ruling in NRSC v. FEC, 6-3, struck the caps on coordinated party-candidate spending for the rest of the cycle, reshaping how national committees can fund those races.

The through-line: formal control of Washington has not translated into a unified Coalition. Congress has passed no Iran authorisation and the administration has signed zero Iran-related executive instruments in 40 days of war, while at home establishment money has repeatedly failed to protect favoured candidates from a MAGA base willing to punish perceived betrayal, on foreign intervention as on primary loyalty.