26JUL

Cook moves 19 House races to Democrats

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The Cook Political Report shifted 19 House races towards Democrats on 23 October and none towards Republicans, and now rates Democrats favoured in the 218 seats needed for a majority.

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PoliticsAssessed

Key takeaway

Cook now rates Democrats favoured to win a House majority, with a likeliest gain of 12 to 22 seats.

The Cook Political Report, a non-partisan race-rating service, moved 19 House races towards Democrats on 23 October and none towards Republicans⁠¹. Six went from Toss Up to Lean Democrat, four of them held by Republican incumbents, and two open seats moved from Lean Republican to Toss Up. Cook says Democrats are favoured outright in the 218 seats needed for a majority in the House of Representatives, and puts the likeliest result at a Democratic gain of 12 to 22 seats.

Sabato's Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia's forecaster, reached the same line first: 28 House changes on 20 October pushed the seats it rates at least leaning Democratic past 218⁠². The latest batch extends a run of Cook moves in one direction, after it shifted 15 races towards Democrats on 25 September and about 29 more earlier this month.

Ratings are forecasts built on polls, money and history, and no votes have been counted. Republicans hold The House until the new Congress sits in January.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

A party needs 218 seats in The House of Representatives for a majority. Republicans hold it now. Independent forecasters such as The Cook Political Report rate each race as safe, likely, leaning or a toss-up for one party. On 23 October Cook moved 19 races towards Democrats and none towards Republicans. Cook now says Democrats are favoured to win a majority. These are forecasts, not results: no votes have been counted yet.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

Midterms tend to punish the president's party; one reason is that the out-party's voters are more motivated to turn out when they hold no power in Washington. Since the Second World War the president's party has lost House seats in most midterms.

Rating services also respond to the same inputs, mainly polls and fundraising reports. When those move one way, several raters tend to move together, as Cook and Sabato did within three days.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Primary parallel: In 2018, the last midterm with Donald Trump in The White House, the main raters moved House seats steadily towards Democrats through October, and Democrats took The House.

Counter-parallel: In 2022 the same raters expected a large Republican gain, and Republicans won The House by a far narrower margin than forecast. One-directional rating moves have overshot before.

Consensus view: The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball now both put Democrats at or past 218 seats at least leaning their way, after Sabato's 28 changes on 20 October and Cook's 19 on 23 October.

Counter-view: No votes have been counted, and Cook had already moved about 29 House races towards Democrats since 1 October. Late moves in the same direction can reflect raters reading the same polls as much as new evidence.

Key tension: Whether the Toss Up seats Cook still lists break together, as in most wave years, or split.

Sources:Cook Political Report·Sabato's Crystal Ball

Mentions:Cook Political Report →Sabato's Crystal Ball →House of Representatives →Donald Trump →White House →Virginia →Democratic Party →

First Reported In

Update #22 · Senate Democrats borrow $15m, outspend GOP

Cook Political Report· 27 Oct 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Cook and Sabato moves run to Democrats

Cook's 19 moves follow about 29 House moves towards Democrats earlier in October.

Occurred 14 Oct 2026

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This Event

Cook moves 19 House races to Democrats

Both main forecasters now have Democrats favoured to win the House, though no votes have been counted and Republicans hold it until January.

Different Perspectives

Department of Justice (DOJ)

DOJ appealed to the 9th Circuit after Judge David O. Carter did not rule by a noon deadline on 22 October that DOJ itself had set, seeking to have California set aside mail ballots from more than 20,000 listed voters. Its case is that ineligible votes cancel lawful ones; the panel dismissed the appeal 2-1 on 26 October.

Lower Costs Now

Lower Costs Now reported $7.37m in Kansas on 24 and 25 October, part of $65.65m in Senate races since its first independent expenditure on 1 October, including $17.21m for Josh Turek in Iowa. Its FEC filings show $50.18m raised by 14 October.

MAGA Inc

MAGA Inc, the super PAC aligned with Donald Trump, filed $7.20m against James Talarico on 22 October, taking its Texas spending to $37.65m. Of that, $30.12m is against Talarico and $7.53m is for Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee.

Senate Majority PAC (SMP)

SMP's pre-general report shows it spent $108.70m from 1 to 14 October, including $65.0m to WinSenate and $10.0m to Texas Forever, and ended with $32.72m. Texas Forever has reported $19.40m against Ken Paxton since 1 October.

Senate Leadership Fund (SLF)

SLF's pre-general report shows $88.42m in cash on 14 October and $18.98m raised in the fortnight, none of it from Elon Musk. It has since reported $12.07m against Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and its $2.7m to Plains PAC preceded that committee's first Kansas buy on 25 October.

National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC)

The NRSC's pre-general report shows nothing spent with Ashley Hinson in Iowa, or with its nominees in six other states, from 1 to 14 October, after $5.54m with Hinson in September. It took no new loan and ended the fortnight with $25.20m in cash and $20m of debt.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.