YouGov put Reform UK on 25%, the Conservatives on 21%, Labour on 20% and the Greens down two points on 13% in its 5-6 July voting-intention poll1. The lead has held across five weeks of scrutiny of Reform's funding and a Labour leadership upheaval. Voting intention measures which party respondents would back in an immediate general election, and the stability of Reform's number, against the backdrop of The Greens slipping from a 17% peak earlier in the cycle, suggests the manoeuvring at Westminster has not moved the wider electorate.
7OCT
Reform holds 25% through the storm
1 min read
13:09UTC
YouGov put Reform on 25%, the Conservatives 21%, Labour 20% and the Greens down two on 13%, its lead unmoved across five weeks of scrutiny.
PoliticsAssessed
Key takeaway
Reform sits unmoved at 25% despite a month of funding scrutiny and Labour's leadership crisis.
Deep Analysis
In plain English
Opinion polls ask a sample of voters which party they would support if there were an election tomorrow. YouGov's poll of 5 to 6 July put Reform UK on 25%, the Conservatives on 21%, Labour on 20% and The Greens down two points on 13%, a lead for Reform that has held steady for five weeks. A steady poll lead does not automatically mean a party will win the most seats in Parliament. Britain's electoral system rewards parties whose support is concentrated in specific areas, so a smaller national vote share can still produce more seats if it is better distributed. UKIP found this out in 2015: it won over one in eight votes nationally but ended up with only one MP.
Root Causes
Under first-past-the-post, a party's national vote share does not translate directly into Commons seats; what matters is whether that support is concentrated enough in individual constituencies to win them outright.
With Reform, the Conservatives, Labour and The Greens now splitting the vote across four parties in the 20 to 25% range, seat-modelling analysts note the outcome depends heavily on how evenly or unevenly each party's support is spread geographically, not simply on who leads the national poll.
Sources:YouGov
First Reported In
Update #11 · Farage to quit Clacton to force by-election
YouGov· 8 Jul 2026
Read original →Causes and effects
Caused by
YouGov puts the Greens at 15%, down from 17%
The 5-6 July YouGov reading extends the same tracking poll series.
Occurred 1 Jun 2026
Read story →Reform plateau breaks after five weeks
The plateau break directly follows the reading that had shown Reform unchanged for five weeks.
Occurred 13 Jul 2026
Read story →This Event
Reform holds 25% through the storm
Reform's steady poll lead through a month of funding scrutiny and a Labour leadership crisis suggests the turmoil at the top is not shifting the ground beneath it.
Different Perspectives
Rhun ap Iorwerth / Welsh Government (Plaid Cymru)
Ap Iorwerth presented six priorities to the Senedd on 22 September without numeric targets or a named partner party, promising to work across the chamber where there is common ground. He says his government will be judged on results.
Michael Marra / Scottish Labour
Marra won the leadership on 19 September, and three days later his 17 MSPs backed Swinney's right-to-decide motion once their child-poverty amendment was written in. He says Scottish Labour's task is to tell voters what it stands for.
Andy Burnham / Labour Party
Burnham told conference in Liverpool on 29 September that Labour's next manifesto will commit to changing the electoral system, and invited every party into a National Commission on Electoral Reform. He has not named a replacement system, and no chair or remit has been published.
Conservative Party (frontbench peers and Kemi Badenoch)
Conservative frontbench peers argued against retrospective rules at the Lords Second Reading on 14 September, a position that protects gifts made before any cap. Kemi Badenoch rejected Burnham's electoral reform commission on 2 October, accusing him of using it to entrench the left.
Reform UK
Reform denied wrongdoing after the Channel 4 News programme, called the sting a hoax by climate activists and said it would cooperate with the Metropolitan Police. In the same month it announced £36m gifts from Ben Delo and Christopher Harborne.
Steff Aquarone / Liberal Democrats (North Norfolk)
Aquarone told Rayner in the Commons on 7 September that North Norfolk District Council had spent money preparing for a reorganisation the Government has now withdrawn. He puts the cost of the cancelled merger on districts in the four areas.