YouGov's five-week Reform plateau broke in mid-July, with the Conservatives and Labour tied at 19% and the Greens up to 15%.
YouGov's Reform plateau broke, leaving the Conservatives and Labour tied at 19%.
YouGov's five-week Reform UK plateau broke in its mid-July reading. Reform slipped to 24%, the Conservatives and Labour tied at 19% each, and the Greens rose two points to 15%, their fastest movement of the Parliament.1 The reading ends a run that had shown Reform unchanged for five weeks.
Two facts arrive at once. The Conservatives and Labour tying at 19% is the first such tie this cycle, and the Green rise extends a recovery first measured after their post-election dip from 17%.2
For five weeks, opinion polls had barely moved: Reform UK sitting comfortably ahead of everyone else. That finally changed in YouGov's poll taken 12-13 July. Reform dropped slightly to 24%, while the Conservatives and Labour are now tied at 19% each, and The Greens jumped two points to 15%, their biggest single move of the whole Parliament so far.
YouGov's own fieldwork notes flag the 12-13 July poll as its first conducted after Burnham's confirmation as Labour leader was locked in, rather than merely rumoured, the most likely proximate trigger for movement after five weeks of an unchanged Reform lead.
The two-point jump for The Greens, their fastest movement of the Parliament, coincides with the same fieldwork window, suggesting some of the shift is undecided or soft Labour-considering voters moving to a clearer alternative rather than direct Reform-to-Green switching, though YouGov's topline does not publish internal transfer data.
