YouGov put Reform UK on 25%, the Conservatives on 21%, Labour on 20% and the Greens down two points on 13% in its 5-6 July voting-intention poll 1. The lead has held across five weeks of scrutiny of Reform's funding and a Labour leadership upheaval. Voting intention measures which party respondents would back in an immediate general election, and the stability of Reform's number, against the backdrop of The Greens slipping from a 17% peak earlier in the cycle , suggests the manoeuvring at Westminster has not moved the wider electorate.
3AUG
Reform holds 25% through the storm
1 min read
15:31UTC
YouGov put Reform on 25%, the Conservatives 21%, Labour 20% and the Greens down two on 13%, its lead unmoved across five weeks of scrutiny.
PoliticsAssessed
Key takeaway
Reform sits unmoved at 25% despite a month of funding scrutiny and Labour's leadership crisis.
Deep Analysis
In plain English
Opinion polls ask a sample of voters which party they would support if there were an election tomorrow. YouGov's poll of 5 to 6 July put Reform UK on 25%, the Conservatives on 21%, Labour on 20% and the Greens down two points on 13%, a lead for Reform that has held steady for five weeks. A steady poll lead does not automatically mean a party will win the most seats in Parliament. Britain's electoral system rewards parties whose support is concentrated in specific areas, so a smaller national vote share can still produce more seats if it is better distributed. UKIP found this out in 2015: it won over one in eight votes nationally but ended up with only one MP.
Root Causes
Under first-past-the-post, a party's national vote share does not translate directly into Commons seats; what matters is whether that support is concentrated enough in individual constituencies to win them outright.
With Reform, the Conservatives, Labour and the Greens now splitting the vote across four parties in the 20 to 25% range, seat-modelling analysts note the outcome depends heavily on how evenly or unevenly each party's support is spread geographically, not simply on who leads the national poll.
Sources:YouGov
First Reported In
Update #11 · Farage to quit Clacton to force by-election
YouGov· 8 Jul 2026
Read original →Causes and effects
Caused by
Green air comes out as governing begins
The 5-6 July YouGov reading extends the same tracking poll series.
Occurred 1 Jun 2026
Read story →Reform plateau breaks after five weeks
The plateau break directly follows the reading that had shown Reform unchanged for five weeks.
Occurred 13 Jul 2026
Read story →This Event
Reform holds 25% through the storm
Reform's steady poll lead through a month of funding scrutiny and a Labour leadership crisis suggests the turmoil at the top is not shifting the ground beneath it.
Different Perspectives
Democratic Unionist Party
Gavin Robinson rejects Sinn Féin's characterisation of the institutions as precarious, says the DUP is "committed to" delivering for the public, and will not be "goaded" into a dispute he attributes to Treasury funding rather than unionist bad faith.
Sinn Féin
Conor Murphy says Stormont power-sharing is in "a precarious place" and blames the DUP for lacking "the political will to make it work", while insisting his own party remains "wedded to power-sharing".
Council leaders in West Sussex and Cambridgeshire and Peterborough
Officers must recruit staff and set shadow budgets through the autumn for boundaries Whitehall has not yet drawn, after October's deferral cost three months of planning time without settling anything, while their May 2027 election date has not moved.
Restore Britain
Restore Britain beat the Conservatives into fifth place in its first mayoral attempt, evidence Rupert Lowe's party has already displaced the Tories as the default home for voters leaving the Conservative column on Reform's right flank.
Scottish National Party
The SNP, through deputy leader Keith Brown, calls Sarwar's peerage exit "the most undemocratic trick in the Westminster book", arguing Scottish Labour now runs on a caretaker leader chosen by patronage rather than by Scottish voters.
Conservative Party
The Conservatives finished fifth in Greater Manchester, beaten by Restore Britain, a party founded this year, in a contest the Tories once treated as a two-horse race against Labour.