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YouGov puts Reform third behind Tories

2 min read

10:25UTC

YouGov's 11-12 October poll for The Times and Sky News had Labour on 24%, the Conservatives on 23% and Reform UK on 21%.

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PoliticsAssessed

Key takeaway

One YouGov poll puts Reform UK third, but the three leading parties sit within the margin of error.

YouGov's poll for The Times and Sky News, with fieldwork on 11 and 12 October, put Labour on 24%, the Conservatives on 23% and Reform UK on 21%⁠¹. YouGov says the Conservative figure is the party's highest since it restarted its tracker in January 2025, and Reform's is its joint-lowest of this Parliament. Labour and the Conservatives together reached 47%, against 33% in early May.

All three leading parties sit within the margin of error, so one poll cannot settle their order. The fieldwork also closed two days before ITV aired its first councillor clips, so the poll cannot measure their effect.

YouGov first put Labour ahead of Reform in August, 24 to 22, weeks after More in Common did so. In YouGov's latest poll Reform also fell behind the Conservatives; a week earlier YouGov had Reform on 22% and the Conservatives on 20%⁠². The Liberal Democrats are on 12%, The Greens 11% and Restore Britain 2%.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Opinion polls ask a sample of a few thousand people how they would vote if there were a general election tomorrow. YouGov is one of the main polling companies in Britain. Its latest poll has Labour, the Conservatives and Reform UK within three points of each other. Polls carry a margin of error, a range within which the real figure probably sits. When parties are this close, the poll cannot say for sure who is ahead. The poll was taken before ITV aired its footage of Reform councillors, so it does not show any effect of that story.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

Five parties now poll in double figures or close to it, with the Liberal Democrats on 12% and The Greens on 11%. In a field that crowded, a swing of two or three points reorders the top three without any party gaining a commanding lead.

A change of prime minister resets voters' reference point. Andy Burnham replaced Starmer in June, and polls after a leadership change often measure a new leader's first impression rather than a settled view.

Restore Britain splits the right. It registers only 2% nationally, but every point it holds comes from the same pool Reform draws on.

What could happen next?

Meaning
A three-way tie under first past the post makes seat projections unusually sensitive to small shifts in regional vote share.
Consequence
YouGov's next tracker will be the first to include fieldwork after the ITV footage aired.

Source Landscape

Primary parallel: After the first televised leaders' debate on 15 April 2010, polls including YouGov's put the Liberal Democrats level with or ahead of both main parties. Nick Clegg's party won 23% on 6 May, behind Labour and the Conservatives, and the three-way tie did not survive polling day.

Counter-parallel: The SNP surge after the September 2014 independence referendum did survive. Polls showed it far ahead in Scotland for months, and it won 56 of Scotland's 59 seats in May 2015.

Consensus view: On a sample of 2,393, the 95% sampling margin on a share near 23% is roughly 1.7 points either way before weighting, which is why YouGov itself calls the top three statistically level. Members of the British Polling Council must publish full tables within two working days, so the weighting behind each figure can be checked.

Counter-view: Local results tell a different story. Reform still polled 31.3% in losing Shepshed on 15 October and 27.0% in Amber Valley, shares that look nothing like third place, because council by-elections reward local organisation that national polls cannot see.

Key tension: Whether the national three-way tie reflects a durable return to the two old parties, or a mood in which voters tell pollsters one thing and reward whichever party is organised on the ground.

Sources:YouGov

Mentions:YouGov →Reform UK →Conservative Party →Labour Party →Liberal Democrats →Green Party →Restore Britain →More in Common →Shepshed →Amber Valley →Scotland →Nick Clegg →ITV →Sky News →Andy Burnham →British Polling Council →

First Reported In

Update #19 · ITV footage drives Reform councillors out

YouGov· 22 Oct 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

YouGov puts Labour ahead of Reform

YouGov first put Labour ahead of Reform in August.

Occurred 11 Aug 2026

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A second pollster puts Labour ahead of Reform

More in Common gave Labour a lead over Reform before YouGov did.

Occurred 27 Jul 2026

Read story →

This Event

YouGov puts Reform third behind Tories

YouGov now has Reform UK behind the Conservatives as well as Labour, though all three sit within the margin of error.

Different Perspectives

Scottish National Party / John Swinney

Swinney told the SNP conference in Aberdeen on 17 October that Scotland is ready for independence, but set no referendum date, bill or Section 30 request. He launched a new campaign instead and extended the £2 bus fare cap to the north east from April 2027.

Liberal Democrats / Ed Davey

Davey ruled out a national partnership with the Greens on 19 October after their Brighton conference passed a "Zionism is racism" motion, and wrote to two Jewish community bodies. He left untouched the councils the two parties already run together.

Reform UK / Richard Tice

Tice alleged ITV's reporter used false details to get a press-office job and said ITV had "likely broken the law", telling members not to speak to it until it apologises. Reform also opened investigations into members, with some suspensions, so the party is contesting the broadcaster and disciplining councillors at once.

Rhun ap Iorwerth / Welsh Government (Plaid Cymru)

Ap Iorwerth presented six priorities to the Senedd on 22 September without numeric targets or a named partner party, promising to work across the chamber where there is common ground. He says his government will be judged on results.

Michael Marra / Scottish Labour

Marra won the leadership on 19 September, and three days later his 17 MSPs backed Swinney's right-to-decide motion once their child-poverty amendment was written in. He says Scottish Labour's task is to tell voters what it stands for.

Andy Burnham / Labour Party

Burnham told conference in Liverpool on 29 September that Labour's next manifesto will commit to changing the electoral system, and invited every party into a National Commission on Electoral Reform. He has not named a replacement system, and no chair or remit has been published.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.