Skip to content
Briefings are running a touch slower this week while we rebuild the foundations.See roadmap
Russia-Ukraine War 2026
1APR

Assembly schedules vote for Mojtaba

3 min read
16:30UTC

The Assembly of Experts moved its emergency session to announce Mojtaba Khamenei to a website and a shrine — after Israel destroyed the building where it last voted.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Conducting the succession online from a shrine rather than in a formal institutional venue confirms that Israeli targeting has partially achieved its strategic objective of disrupting the succession process, even if it has not halted it.

Iran International reported that the Assembly of Experts scheduled an emergency online session for 5 March to formally announce Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader, accelerating from the "next week" timeline reported earlier Wednesday. The session is being held from a location near the Fatima Masumeh shrine in Qom — one of Shia Islam's holiest sites, chosen to lend religious gravity to a succession that lacks it on clerical terms, and because Israel struck the Assembly's Qom headquarters during the succession vote earlier this week , killing or wounding multiple members.

The Assembly had already confirmed Mojtaba as successor , but that vote occurred under contested circumstances. Whether it took place before the Israeli strike on the headquarters, in its aftermath, or in a dispersed emergency session remains unclear and cannot be independently verified during Iran's internet blackout, now in its sixth day . Iranian state media described the selection as "divine will." The formal announcement session is intended to provide the public legitimacy that the initial vote, conducted under fire, could not deliver.

At least eight Assembly members plan to boycott, citing "heavy pressure" from the IRGC. Their objection is substantive: Mojtaba, 56, does not hold marja ("source of emulation") status — the highest rank in Shia clerical hierarchy. Article 109 of the Islamic Republic's constitution requires The Supreme Leader to possess senior jurisprudential scholarship. His father faced a similar objection when elevated from hojatoleslam in 1989; the clerical establishment resolved it by retroactively upgrading Khamenei's rank, a manoeuvre critics called political rather than scholarly. Mojtaba's credentials are thinner still. His power base is the IRGC and Basij, not the seminaries of Qom.

The earlier plan to delay the announcement — linked to postponement of Ali Khamenei's burial and security concerns about any public ceremony presenting a targeting opportunity — has been overridden. The IRGC's calculation appears to be that a state at war without a formally announced head of state is more vulnerable than one with a contested leader. Iran has now restructured its military into 31 autonomous commands and is attempting to formalise its supreme political authority — both under active bombardment, both improvised responses to Israeli strikes designed to decapitate the chain of command. From exile, Reza Pahlavi — the late Shah's son — stated that whoever is announced "will lack legitimacy and will be considered an accomplice to the bloody record" of the Islamic Republic, a framing aimed at the internal Iranian audience the internet blackout is designed to isolate.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Iran is choosing its most powerful leader — the Supreme Leader sits above the president and controls the military, judiciary, and state media — but instead of a formal ceremony in their parliament building (which was bombed), they are doing it online from near a holy site, rushed to prevent further attacks. The person being chosen (Mojtaba Khamenei) is the current leader's son, which is politically awkward in a system that claims to reject dynastic rule and requires the leader to be a qualified Islamic scholar — a qualification he is widely considered to lack.

Deep Analysis
Synthesis

The dispersed, covert session reveals that Israel's targeting strategy has achieved a secondary effect the body does not articulate: it has transformed Iran's most consequential institutional act into an underground process, reducing its religious and procedural defensibility precisely when maximum legitimacy is needed to govern through a wartime crisis.

Root Causes

Iran's constitution requires the Supreme Leader to be a qualified Islamic jurist (faqih); Mojtaba lacks this standing. The IRGC's willingness to coerce the Assembly reflects a decade-long structural shift in which the Guards' economic interests — estimated at 20–30% of Iran's GDP through affiliated conglomerates — have made them the dominant institutional power, with the theological rationale for the system increasingly subordinate to their security calculus.

Escalation

The acceleration signals the IRGC and regime inner circle want Mojtaba formally installed before either a ceasefire negotiation or continued military pressure removes their ability to control the outcome — suggesting the regime expects the conflict to continue long enough to make the succession a live variable in any talks.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    A Supreme Leader installed through a coerced, boycotted, digitally-conducted session will face persistent internal legitimacy challenges that make governance dependent on IRGC enforcement rather than clerical authority.

    Medium term · Assessed
  • Precedent

    Conducting a constitutional process online under targeting pressure establishes that Iranian state institutions can be physically dispersed and degraded by external military action — a capability demonstration that will inform future Israeli and US targeting doctrine.

    Long term · Suggested
  • Risk

    A legitimacy-challenged new Supreme Leader may pursue aggressive military postures in the short term to consolidate authority and demonstrate strength to the IRGC constituency that installed him.

    Short term · Suggested
First Reported In

Update #22 · IRGC drones hit Azerbaijan; CIA link cut

Iran International· 5 Mar 2026
Read original
Causes and effects
This Event
Assembly schedules vote for Mojtaba
The acceleration of Mojtaba's formal announcement — conducted online, relocated for security, and facing an eight-member boycott — reflects the IRGC's judgement that establishing leadership continuity during active bombardment outweighs the legitimacy costs of a contested, hurried process.
Different Perspectives
North Korea / DPRK
North Korea / DPRK
ISW confirmed the first mounting of DPRK Type-75 MLRS on Russian autonomous UGVs near Kharkiv on 7 June, the latest step in a supply axis that escalated from shells in 2023 to troops in 2024. Pyongyang gains live battlefield data on its ordnance and on Russia's uncrewed-systems programme.
IAEA / Rafael Grossi
IAEA / Rafael Grossi
Grossi confirmed Chornobyl structural damage with nuclear material metres away and could not attribute the ZNPP 15-hour blackout during the agreed repair window. Six ceasefires brokered and broken at ZNPP, compounded by Rosatom's May attack on IAEA neutrality, have eroded his ability to enforce the windows he negotiates.
Emmanuel Macron / France
Emmanuel Macron / France
Macron co-signed the E3 framework whose line-of-contact baseline marks Europe's first formal acceptance that 1991 borders are not the opening position. France's role carries weight because Macron had previously proposed a European force for Ukraine, and the framework's multinational force point is the vehicle for that.
Keir Starmer / E3
Keir Starmer / E3
Starmer, Macron and Merz met Zelenskyy on 7 June and backed a five-point framework taking the line of contact as the talks baseline, conceding roughly one fifth of Ukraine in exchange for a multinational force and frozen assets. With US mediation ended, the NATO Ankara summit on 7-8 July is the next test.
Vladimir Putin / Kremlin
Vladimir Putin / Kremlin
Putin used SPIEF to reject Zelenskyy's summit letter, citing 'elements of rudeness', and repeated the pre-agreed treaty precondition that has frozen every diplomatic round since May. The SPIEF platform's message of investor confidence was punctured by naval fires visible from St Petersburg, which Moscow declined to dispute in scale.
Ukraine / Unmanned Systems Forces
Ukraine / Unmanned Systems Forces
Commander Brovdi confirmed USF units tracked and set fire to Boikyi at Kronstadt, while Code 9.2 struck the Chonhar Bridge the following day. Ukraine is sequencing strikes for rear-area interdiction and political timing rather than ground gains, trading the Baltic Fleet's home base for the logistics squeeze Russia cannot absorb without rationing its own occupied territory.