The US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, published its September Short-Term Energy Outlook on Wednesday 9 September, forecasting 5.7 million barrels a day of Middle East production shut in during the fourth quarter of 20261. Its August edition put the same figure at 4.2 million2. The forecaster added 1.5 million barrels a day of lost supply, roughly a third more, in the space of one month, although none of the physical damage behind that revision is new.
The date attached to recovery moved with it. In August the agency expected regional output back near pre-conflict averages in early 2027. In September it expects output below those averages until the second quarter of that year3. Its Brent annual average forecast rose from $87 to $91 a barrel for 2026, and from $69 to $74 for 20274.
That second revision is the one that matters. Prices for the current quarter move on the news, and a forecaster chasing them is describing the past. Raising an annual average for a year that has not started is a statement about duration: the EIA is saying the disruption outlives the shooting, because shut-in wells, damaged terminals and a broken insurance market do not restart on the day a ceasefire is signed.
The physical trade tells the same story more quietly. Oil is still crossing the Strait of Hormuz on a southern route run under US guidance, established in early September, which is why the market has not seized. A convoy route keeps barrels moving and does nothing about the wells that stopped producing. For a household the revision translates to a diesel price that does not fall before the winter heating season, and haulage rates that pass the difference into the cost of food.
