Brent Crude settled at $92.05 per barrel on Friday 29 May, down more than 19% across May, its steepest monthly fall since the March 2020 Covid crash1. That is roughly $20 below the $112.10 peak of Monday 18 May, a drop booked in 11 trading sessions, the fastest repricing of the conflict. WTI (West Texas Intermediate), the US oil benchmark, closed near $87.86.
The fall came on diplomatic optimism alone, with no instrument signed. Brent is the global price benchmark for two-thirds of traded crude, so the relief at the pump rests on a deal that could still collapse.
Two markets are reading the same war and pricing it apart. Futures price the probability of a signed page, and traders have bet heavily on one arriving. War-risk underwriters require the page itself. Lloyd's of London has still not de-listed Hormuz from its war-risk register, holding the divergence it opened when Brent first broke $100.
When Iranian state television aired draft terms on Wednesday 27 May, Brent briefly touched a sub-$95 low before a White House denial reversed it. Friday's settle went lower and stayed there. The deal-optimism premium is unhedged against an unsigned outcome, so a collapse would reverse the move faster than the original war spike built it.
