Brent Crude traded above $106 on Friday 24 April morning and closed at $105.73, a new post-extension high. The price sits 57% above the $67.41 pre-war baseline and marks the first trading day back above the $100 threshold since the ceasefire relief of 21 April priced out. Brent last cleared $100 at contract expiry on 18 April, when it settled at $97.91 after a three-day slide; the current level reverses that compression.
Windward, the maritime-intelligence provider, logged 9 Hormuz transits on 22 April (six inbound, three outbound) against a pre-war baseline above 100 per day1. Gulf-wide vessel presence climbed to 868 vessels (+108), reversing the 20 April easing, as dark-activity events, defined by Windward as AIS switch-offs or spoofing, rose 13% to 132 events. Three named Windward-tracked vessels tied to the 22 April IRGC seizures appear in the 22 April transit data prior to the interdictions, confirming live tracking.
Dark activity rose 13% on 22 April even as transit count collapsed 91% against the pre-war baseline. Fewer vessels would normally suppress deceptive-shipping signals because fewer hulls are available to hide; instead Windward logged the opposite pattern on the same day IRGC seizures and mine-laying threats escalated. Charterers are still attempting the route but now layering identity obfuscation on every passage, which raises the probability of a misidentified vessel drawing CENTCOM engagement under the verbal shoot-kill order.
For UK motorists the wholesale shift translates to roughly 25-30p per litre above pre-war pump prices if the retail sector passes it through by early May. European haulage desks are pricing the new high into May contracts; Mediterranean LNG buyers are seeing the knock-on in spot markets. With no new Iran instrument signed in Washington, the Brent level is responding to kinetic risk in the strait rather than to paper.
