Wood Mackenzie data published on 24 July shows Saudi Red Sea crude bypass peaked at 4.07 million barrels a day in March and fell 41% to 2.39 million by June1. Bypass here means Saudi crude routed away from the Red Sea approach to avoid the Houthi threat, so a falling number reads as de-escalation and returning confidence in the corridor.
The timing undercut the reading. Wood Mackenzie is an energy research firm whose flow data desks treat as a considered read on trend, yet the series it released describes a market that had already reversed. The Bab el-Mandeb blockade of 23 July snapped the bypass back toward full within a week, so a desk taking the 24 July print at face value would have inferred a cooling trend one day after the flow turned.
Read the two series together and June's normalisation shows its condition: it held only while the strait stayed open. The March-to-June decline unwound inside a week, which means a Red Sea freight position cannot be sized as though the calm were a fading trend. It has to carry a snapback premium for any single security shock, because the last one erased four months of easing in seven days.
