Ukrainian air defences intercepted none of the ballistic and hypersonic missiles fired at the country across five mass strikes in the week of 6 to 12 July, according to the Drone Warfare Intelligence Monitor's weekly assessment1. Drone interception over the same week held between 92% and 100%. In mid-June the ballistic figure stood at 44% against the Iskander-M, Russia's short-range ballistic missile, with supply of the PAC-3 MSE interceptor already frozen.
Russian missile volume did not rise to produce that fall. The PAC-3 MSE, the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 Missile Segment Enhancement, is the only interceptor in Ukraine's inventory that reliably engages a ballistic warhead in its terminal phase, and American export decisions govern every round of it. Lockheed Martin has told allies it cannot guarantee delivery timelines even with seeker production tripled2. The gap between drone and ballistic interception measures exactly this: cheap drones can be met with guns, fighters and improvised interceptors Ukraine builds itself, while a warhead arriving at several times the speed of sound can only be met with a missile Ukraine cannot manufacture.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in April that Ukraine's Patriot position "could not be any worse", a description of stock levels rather than a bargaining line, and the July figures bear that reading out. Batteries that cannot be resupplied get moved rather than fired, which turns air defence into a rationing exercise. Kyiv, the western logistics corridor and the energy grid cannot all be covered at once, and whichever is left uncovered becomes the cheapest target Russia has.
