Zero Hormuz tankers transited in the 24 hours after Trump's 16 June signature, despite his declaration that the strait was open. The two crossings logged on 15-16 June were toll passages under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) authority, Iran's military force that controls mine routes and passage conditions, not a reopening. More than 500 ships remain parked in the Gulf1. BIMCO, the world's largest shipowner association, calls a crossing "very risky": the floating mines are still live, no IRGC order has cleared the lanes, and not one Protection and Indemnity (P&I) club, the London-based mutual marine insurers, has lifted its Hormuz war-risk exclusion2.
The insurance point drives the lanes more than the mines do. A tanker without P&I cover cannot dock, because terminals and lenders refuse an uninsured hull. The blockade now runs through London insurance underwriters as much as through Iranian mines, and every owner knows it. Jakob Larsen, BIMCO's chief safety officer, said owners "still consider it very risky to commence transits at this point" while the mines stand uncleared.
Brent Crude, the global benchmark that prices roughly two-thirds of internationally traded oil, fell to between $78.82 and $81.55 on the signing, down as much as 5 per cent3, near the two-month low it touched a week ago on deal optimism. Markets priced the expectation of an open strait. No moving ship lay behind the fall, because the lanes held zero new transits. The price moved; the cargo did not.
