13JUL

Trump claims deal; Iran says no talks

2 min read

10:28UTC

Trump claims a deal is close. Iran's foreign minister says Tehran never asked for one. Pakistan is offering the room.

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ConflictDeveloping

Key takeaway

Diplomatic signals contradict each other six days before the deadline.

President Trump told Al Jazeera on 31 March that he is "pretty sure" of a deal with Iran and described talks as going "extremely well." ¹ Pakistan offered Islamabad as a venue for direct talks between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, possibly this week.

Iran agreed to one confidence-building step: 20 Pakistani-flagged vessels would be permitted through Hormuz. But Araghchi simultaneously told reporters, "We never asked for a ceasefire, and we have never asked even for negotiation." The Committee of Four (Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt) met for a second time in under two weeks on 29 March , and China declared "full support." Pakistan has facilitated indirect contact between Washington and Tehran since late March . Whether that contact becomes a direct channel this week is the test.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The US and Iran are not talking to each other directly. Pakistan has been acting as a go-between, passing messages in both directions. President Trump told Al Jazeera he is 'pretty sure' of a deal and talks are going 'extremely well.' Iran's Foreign Minister said on the same day that Iran never asked for a ceasefire and never asked for negotiations. Both statements can be true at once. Iran may allow messages to pass through Pakistan while publicly denying it is negotiating. This is how the Iran nuclear deal in 2015 began: through back-channels that both sides publicly denied for months.

What could happen next?

Risk
Araghchi's public denial creates domestic political constraints that make it harder for Iran to accept a deal even if the terms are acceptable.
Immediate · 0.75
Opportunity
Pakistan's offer of Islamabad for direct Rubio-Araghchi talks is the closest the conflict has come to a direct US-Iran channel; if both show up, it bypasses the denial-while-negotiating problem.
Short term · 0.6
Risk
With Khamenei absent for 32 days, any agreement reached by Araghchi may lack the constitutional authority to survive Guardian Council review.
Medium term · 0.65

Source Landscape

This story draws on centre-left-leaning sources from Qatar

Qatar×2

Primary parallel: The 2013 Rouhani-Obama back-channel that preceded the JCPOA followed a similar pattern: public Iranian statements denied interest in direct talks for months while back-channel contact through Oman intensified. The eventual Rouhani-Obama phone call was announced as a breakthrough, not as a product of months of denied contact.

Counter-parallel: The 2022 Vienna JCPOA revival talks collapsed at the verification stage after months of apparent progress. Both sides entered talks with contradictory domestic mandates; the gap was not bridgeable without political costs neither government could absorb.

Consensus view: Crisis Group's Ali Vaez and Al Jazeera's senior correspondent Hashem Ahelbarra both assess Araghchi's public denial as a deliberate negotiating posture designed for domestic audiences, not a genuine statement of intent. Stating 'we never asked for negotiations' while Iran agrees confidence-building measures is classic signalling designed to prevent accusations of capitulation.

Counter-view: Tehran Bureau's Ali Nouri argues the denial reflects a genuine internal division: the IRGC, currently the effective decision-making authority with Khamenei absent for 32 days, opposes direct talks. Araghchi's statement may reflect IRGC constraints on his mandate rather than diplomatic posturing.

Key tension: Whether Iran can enter direct talks with Rubio without the Supreme Leader's visible authorisation, given that any agreement requires Guardian Council approval.

Sources:Al Jazeera·Al Jazeera

Mentions:Islamabad →Guardian Council →Abbas Araghchi →Pakistan →Marco Rubio →

First Reported In

Update #53 · Trump drops Hormuz goal; toll becomes law

Al Jazeera· 31 Mar 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Islamabad talks end without a statement

Pakistan's offer for direct Rubio-Araghchi talks grew from the second Committee of Four meeting in Islamabad on 29 March.

Occurred 30 Mar 2026

Read story →

This Event

Trump claims deal; Iran says no talks

The gap between Trump's optimism and Araghchi's flat denial defines the diplomatic uncertainty six days before the 6 April deadline.

Different Perspectives

Turkey

Turkey, a major buyer of Russian diesel cargoes, loses that access under Moscow's first producer-binding export ban, in force from 8 July to 31 July. Ankara hosted the same week's NATO summit pledging EUR 70bn to Ukraine, sitting on both sides of the fuel-and-alliance ledger.

NATO

NATO leaders meeting in Ankara on 7 and 8 July pledged EUR 70bn in equipment, assistance and training for Ukraine across 2026, with a 2027 sustainment commitment and a $40bn Drone Edge counter-drone initiative. European allies now fund the vast majority of that package, filling the gap left by Washington's idled crude waiver.

India

India's state refiners continued buying discounted Urals crude as June's price fell to $63.18 a barrel, insulating New Delhi from the OFAC waiver gap still constraining Western buyers. Indian refiners could pick up diesel-export share as Russia's producer-binding ban shuts out its former customers.

China

China's independent refiners kept importing discounted Urals crude through June as the price fell to $63.18 a barrel, down 26% month-on-month per CREA. Beijing has said nothing on Moscow's new diesel ban, leaving Chinese refiners a likely beneficiary if Turkish and Brazilian buyers seek replacement cargoes.

United States

No successor licence has been issued since General License 134C lapsed on 17 June, leaving a 26-day gap, the longest of the war, in the Russian crude waiver. Washington's silence is tightening the channel without any stated decision, as Treasury weighs whether to let it die.

Ukraine

Ukraine's long-range strike campaign shifted from refineries to seaborne fuel tankers crossing the Sea of Azov, cutting tracked vessel traffic 55% between 30 June and 11 July, per Starboard Maritime Intelligence. The shift targets Russia's export revenue directly rather than just domestic supply, adding pressure alongside the collapsing Urals price.