Brent Crude rose to $85–90 per barrel, up from approximately $73 before the campaign — a rise of 16 to 23 per cent in three days. The price had opened at $82.37 on 1 March (ID:108) and has climbed steadily as the strait of Hormuz closure enters its fourth day. Gold held at a record $5,362 per ounce (ID:109). Dow futures fell 300 points and the Nikkei dropped 2% (ID:110).
The driver is physical, not speculative. Vessel traffic through the strait has fallen 70 per cent , with more than 150 tankers anchored in open Gulf waters. CMA CGM, Maersk, and four other major carriers have suspended all transits . Roughly 20 million barrels per day normally pass through — one-fifth of the world's traded oil. OPEC+'s 220,000 barrel-per-day increase replaces 1.1 per cent of that volume.
Goldman Sachs projects oil averaging $98 near-term, rising to $110 in a high-disruption scenario. JPMorgan forecast $120–130 if prolonged (ID:111). Goldman raised its US recession probability estimate to 25%; prediction market Kalshi briefly priced it at 35%. JPMorgan Asset Management identified a sustained Hormuz closure as the variable separating a contained price shock from a supply crisis reaching European and Asian consumers.
The 1973 Arab oil embargo — the closest historical precedent to a sustained Gulf supply disruption — quadrupled oil prices over six months and triggered a global recession. The critical variable then was not the initial spike but duration. At $85–90, the market is pricing in a resolution. Goldman and JPMorgan are pricing in the possibility that one does not come.
