Dutch TTF natural gas contracts pulled back overnight to approximately €48 per megawatt-hour, retreating from peaks above €60/MWh reached earlier in the week. The decline reflects trader positioning around an expected de-escalation. It does not reflect any change in physical gas supply.
The supply picture has worsened, not improved, since the peak. QatarEnergy ceased all LNG production at Ras Laffan and Mesaieed following Iranian drone strikes on Monday. Ras Laffan is the world's largest LNG export facility; Qatar produces 20% of global Liquefied Natural Gas. That production remains offline. the strait of Hormuz is now commercially sealed after the P&I insurance deadline passed overnight. EU gas storage stands at 30%, below the previous year's level at the same point. Bloomberg assessed that Europe can absorb current price levels if the conflict ends within one month; beyond that, the continent faces a genuine supply crisis heading into next winter's restocking season.
The €48/MWh price sits in a specific place: well below the panic peak, but roughly 50% above the low-€30s/MWh where TTF contracts traded before the conflict began. The 2022 Russian gas cutoff drove TTF to €340/MWh — but that disrupted pipeline supply over months, giving markets time to adjust. This conflict has disrupted LNG — the replacement fuel Europe spent four years and tens of billions of euros securing after the Russian cutoff — in under a week. Asian LNG spot prices rose 39% on the Qatar strikes alone. South Korea's KOSPI fell 12% in its worst single session on record; Japan's Nikkei dropped 3.9%. The speed of this supply disruption is faster than 2022. Goldman Sachs's Q2 oil forecast and this gas price retreat both carry the same embedded assumption: that the war ends before its economic consequences become structural. No physical supply indicator currently supports that bet.
