28JUL

Seven ships veer clear of the strait

1 min read

09:28UTC

Seven vessels have diverted away from the Bab al-Mandab since the tanker strikes, according to ship-tracking data, closing the southern reroute in practice.

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Key takeaway

With ships avoiding both straits, Gulf-to-Europe crude faces the long route round the Cape and a wider insurance exclusion.

Seven vessels have diverted away from the Bab al-Mandab since the 22 July tanker strikes, according to ship-tracking data ¹. the strait, the southern passage past Yemen through which Gulf oil reaches the Suez Canal, had absorbed traffic pushed off the Hormuz route as the northern chokepoint tightened.

The diversions turn a single attack into a routing problem for every owner weighing the southern passage. Hormuz weekly transits had already fallen 66% before this ; avoiding the Bab al-Mandab as well leaves the long haul around the Cape of Good Hope as the remaining way from The Gulf to Europe, adding roughly ten days and the fuel bill to match. War-risk underwriters, who have held a Hormuz exclusion for weeks, now have a fresh southern-strait case on which to widen it.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Ship-tracking data shows seven vessels have chosen to avoid the Bab al-Mandab strait entirely since the tanker strikes began, sailing the long way round Africa instead. It is a small number so far, but it shows some shipping companies have decided the risk of sailing through the strait is no longer worth it, whatever the extra cost of the longer route.

Sources:Al Jazeera·Axios

Mentions:Bab al-Mandeb →Houthis →Cape of Good Hope →Yemen →

First Reported In

Update #160 · Houthis hit Saudi tankers; Brent tops $100

Al Jazeera· 23 Jul 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Houthis fire on the Saudi tanker Encelia

The tanker strikes prompted seven vessels to divert away from the Bab al-Mandab.

Occurred 21 Jul 2026

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This Event

Seven ships veer clear of the strait

Rerouting away from the Bab al-Mandab as well as Hormuz leaves the long haul round the Cape as the remaining option and widens the war-risk exclusion.

Different Perspectives

Iran's Supreme Leader's office and Iranian households

A letter published through state media named Lebanon's territorial integrity and an end to Israeli operations there as the war's ending condition; the same week, spokesperson Mohajerani cut the subsidised petrol ration from 70 to 50 litres a month. Iranian agencies still disagree on who inside the office signed the letter.

Oman

Muscat proposed a voluntary-funded coalition to police Hormuz, the corridor its own coastline gives it standing to manage, while Iran wants control and toll rights over shipping and Washington insists on free navigation. Oman's remit stops at the strait; it has no comparable claim over Iraq, the Caspian, or Lebanon.

Kyiv

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed the Caspian strike on an Iranian vessel carrying military cargo from Russia's Astrakhan region, opening a front that ties Iran's war to its supply relationship with Moscow rather than to anything the Gulf mediators are discussing.

Riyadh

Maj Gen Turki Al Malki named Iraq as the launch point for drones intercepted over the Eastern Province and Riyadh, the first time this war has reached Saudi Arabia from that direction rather than from Yemen. Nothing landed, but a second launch geography aimed at Saudi oil now exists alongside the Houthi front.

Baghdad

Iraq's Foreign Ministry summoned its own ambassador in Riyadh after Saudi Arabia's Defence Ministry said the drones came from Iraqi territory, while the same day drones struck Iranian-Kurdish opposition camps inside Iraq. Baghdad is disowning attacks it did not launch from territory it does not fully control.

The Pentagon and Congress

Acting press secretary Joel Valdez attributed the toll's reversal to site anomalies, the same explanation the department gave for the opposite cut on 24 July; Representative Thomas Massie called the category change an absurd ruse designed to reset the war's legal clock. Neither side agrees on which explanation, or which war, is real.