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Iran Conflict 2026
12JUN

Brent holds at $95 as markets wait

2 min read
09:18UTC

Oil prices stayed flat at $95-97, pricing a sustained stalemate rather than confidence in resolution.

← Back to Trump halts strikes, touts deal Iran deniesJump to analysis ↓
ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Brent above $95 reflects a market that expects neither resolution nor collapse.

Brent Crude traded between $95.20 and $96.69 on 11-12 April, essentially flat from the prior update's $96.39 . The post-ceasefire drop to $92 proved temporary; Brent has since recovered and settled into a narrow band above $95.

The flat range tells a story. Markets are not pricing in a clean resolution. They are not pricing in a return to conflict either. They are pricing a structural stalemate: the Hormuz Strait stays mostly closed, supply stays constrained, and nobody knows what happens when the ceasefire expires.

Oxford Economics projects world GDP growth at 1.4% in 2026 if the conflict persists, down from a 2.6% baseline. War risk insurance premiums remain four to five times pre-war levels. Commercial vessels rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope add 10 to 20 days per voyage, and US importer freight rates have risen by up to 50%.

Most equity markets have not yet priced in a sustained conflict scenario, which means the current oil price may be an underestimate of the economic shock if the ceasefire collapses without a replacement framework. Brent peaked sharply higher before the ceasefire was announced; a return to those levels would sharpen the GDP drag considerably.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Brent crude is the global oil price benchmark. It is trading just above $95 per barrel, roughly $20 above where it was before the conflict. The fact it has stayed flat, neither rising sharply nor falling, tells you what the markets think: they expect the stalemate to continue for a while, but they do not expect a catastrophic escalation either. Oxford Economics, one of the most widely-cited economic forecasting institutions, estimates that if this conflict drags on, the world economy will grow by only 1.4% in 2026, down from 2.6% without the conflict. That 1.2-percentage-point reduction does not sound like much, but at the scale of the global economy it represents roughly $1.2 trillion in lost output, roughly the entire GDP of Spain for a year. For ordinary people, the most direct effect is energy costs. Sustained $95+ Brent flows through to petrol, diesel, gas, and electricity prices over weeks to months.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Markets pricing a structural stalemate rather than resolution means Brent will stay elevated regardless of ceasefire expiry, unless Hormuz transit actually resumes at scale, a signal the first oil tanker full transit would provide.

  • Risk

    The Oxford Economics 1.4% global growth scenario is predicated on sustained conflict without re-escalation; a return to active hostilities would trigger a spike above $110, potentially pushing the global economy into recession territory.

Sources:Stimson Center
Mentions:Cape of Good Hope →Strait of Hormuz Toll System →Oxford Economics →Brent Crude →
First Reported In

Update #66 · Islamabad collapses: 10 days to expiry

Stimson Center· 12 Apr 2026
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Causes and effects
Caused by
Brent crude recovers from post-ceasefire low
Brent at $96.39 (ID:2211) held essentially flat to the $95.20-$96.69 range on 11-12 April, confirming sustained market pricing of the conflict stalemate.
Occurred 11 Apr 2026
Read story →
This Event
Brent holds at $95 as markets wait
Rangebound Brent above $95 means markets have not priced in a clean resolution, and the economic cost of the conflict is accumulating, not receding.
Led to
Oil surges past $103 on blockade
Brent at $95-97 on 11-12 April jumped 8% past $103 as the blockade announcement repriced markets from stalemate to active escalation.
Occurred 13 Apr 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
Oil markets and Lloyd's of London
Oil markets and Lloyd's of London
Brent fell to $89.25 on ceasefire probability, not new barrels, with traders voting for Trump's deed over Tehran's denial. Lloyd's has not repriced Hormuz war-risk cover because its trigger requires a UN Security Council resolution or government certification, so tanker insurance costs remain elevated regardless of the spot move.
Pakistan and Qatar mediators
Pakistan and Qatar mediators
Pakistan's Mohsin Naqvi was in Tehran for his second visit in under a week, using the Pakistan-Qatar channel that delivered April's ceasefire after an identical public-denial cycle. The channel carries both civilian and military buy-in from Islamabad, the only configuration Iran's split command cannot dismiss as a partial signal.
India
India
India summoned the US Deputy Chief of Mission after three Indian sailors were killed aboard MT Settebello, the first formal grievance from a major non-belligerent directed at US enforcement. Indian seafarers supply roughly 12 per cent of the global maritime workforce; their presence on third-flag Gulf tankers is structurally inevitable regardless of bilateral diplomacy.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
The IRGC declared Hormuz closed on 11 June while civilian negotiators were on the same mediation channel, then issued no public comment on the MoU framework. Its silence on the framework, rather than any foreign ministry statement, is the operative approval signal; the corps' unilateral Hormuz closure shows it did not treat the diplomatic track as binding on its operations.
Iran foreign ministry (Baghaei)
Iran foreign ministry (Baghaei)
Esmail Baghaei told IRNA that reports of a finalised deal were 'merely speculation' and that Iran had 'not yet made a final decision'. The denial is structurally identical to Iranian foreign ministry statements during the April ceasefire talks, which produced a binding text within 48 hours of the same language.
Trump administration / CENTCOM
Trump administration / CENTCOM
Trump cancelled the third strike day and called the MoU 'very strong' and almost ready to sign, while CENTCOM kept tanker enforcement running in the same 24-hour window. The administration is simultaneously withdrawing the military pressure it claims drove the deal and sustaining the enforcement campaign it is trying to trade away.