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Iran Conflict 2026
4JUN

500 ships idle as Hormuz stays shut

3 min read
11:25UTC

Zero new tankers crossed Hormuz in the 24 hours after Trump's signature; more than 500 ships stayed anchored as Bimco called a crossing very risky.

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ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Brent priced an open strait that no tanker actually crossed; insurers still block transit.

Zero Hormuz tankers transited in the 24 hours after Trump's 16 June signature, despite his declaration that the strait was open. The two crossings logged on 15-16 June were toll passages under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) authority, Iran's military force that controls mine routes and passage conditions, not a reopening . More than 500 ships remain parked in the Gulf 1. BIMCO, the world's largest shipowner association, calls a crossing "very risky": the floating mines are still live, no IRGC order has cleared the lanes, and not one Protection and Indemnity (P&I) club, the London-based mutual marine insurers, has lifted its Hormuz war-risk exclusion 2.

The insurance point drives the lanes more than the mines do. A tanker without P&I cover cannot dock, because terminals and lenders refuse an uninsured hull. The blockade now runs through London insurance underwriters as much as through Iranian mines, and every owner knows it. Jakob Larsen, BIMCO's chief safety officer, said owners "still consider it very risky to commence transits at this point" while the mines stand uncleared.

Brent Crude, the global benchmark that prices roughly two-thirds of internationally traded oil, fell to between $78.82 and $81.55 on the signing, down as much as 5 per cent 3, near the two-month low it touched a week ago on deal optimism . Markets priced the expectation of an open strait. No moving ship lay behind the fall, because the lanes held zero new transits. The price moved; the cargo did not.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

When a ship sails through a war zone, it needs special war-risk insurance. The P&I clubs, mutual insurance associations based in London, provide this cover for roughly 90 per cent of the world's ships. They said on 16 June that the Hormuz strait is still too dangerous to cover, because Iranian military mines remain in the water and nobody has officially certified them as swept. Without that cover, a shipowner who loses a vessel in the strait cannot claim for the loss. No credible insurer will touch an active mine zone. This is why 500 ships are sitting in the Gulf, not because their owners do not want to move, but because sailing uninsured through an uncleared mine field is commercially and legally impossible.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The 500-ship backlog and zero-transit outcome have two distinct root causes. The mine threat is physical: CENTCOM's own assessment by mid-May was that 90 per cent of Iran's naval mine stockpile was warehoused, not in-water, but the remaining deployed mines have not been certified as swept. Bimco's Jakob Larsen cited active mines as the primary safety barrier.

The P&I club constraint operates through the International Group of P&I Clubs, which covers roughly 90 per cent of the world's ocean-going tonnage. The group sets a collective de-risk bar that no individual member club can unilaterally lower without triggering reinsurance withdrawal by the London market. P&I clubs cannot issue standard hull and liability cover for a zone the Lloyd's Joint War Committee lists as enhanced-risk without a UN resolution or government certification of safety.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    P&I de-listing of Hormuz requires mine clearance certification or a UN resolution; the 60-day nuclear talks window does not address either condition.

  • Risk

    Oil markets pricing a reopening that has no ships behind it face a correction risk if Friday's ceremony also fails to produce mine clearance progress.

Sources:Argus Media·Fortune
Mentions:BIMCO →Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) →Strait of Hormuz →Brent Crude →Persian Gulf Strait Authority →Tanker War →London →Ports and Maritime Organisation →Iran →Operation Earnest Will →Norway →Yemen →Brent-WTI →TrumpIRA.gov →Jakob Larsen →P&I →
First Reported In

Update #130 · Trump signed the war over; it kept going

Argus Media· 17 Jun 2026
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Causes and effects
Caused by
Hormuz logged two ships, not 94
The two IRGC toll transits on 15-16 June were explicitly not a reopening, establishing the zero-new-transit baseline that persisted after the MOU signing.
Occurred 15 Jun 2026
Read story →
Brent hits two-month low on deal bets
Brent's fall to $78.82–$81.55 on 16 June extended the two-month low reached near $87.33 as markets priced deal optimism that preceded any actual reopening.
Occurred 12 Jun 2026
Read story →
This Event
500 ships idle as Hormuz stays shut
An open strait on paper means nothing while mines are live, insurers refuse cover, and the IRGC has cleared no lanes.
Led to
Insurers and mines keep Hormuz shut
The zero new tanker transits logged after Trump's order (ID:4270) continued into 18-19 June as the mine and insurer reality persisted.
Occurred 18 Jun 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
International Group of P&I Clubs
International Group of P&I Clubs
The Group has kept its Hormuz war-risk exclusion in force through the entire shipping recovery, even as London hull war-risk premiums fell to about 2% of vessel value. A burning LNG carrier off Limah is now the fresh case for holding that line, with mutual pooling meaning one hit reprices the strait for every owner at once.
Jordan
Jordan
Jordan's government said no threats existed at Aqaba hours before Iranian missiles landed there, and has not addressed the IRGC's claim that Jordanian civilians and soldiers supplied targeting intelligence for the strike. Amman hosts forces it does not command and is saying as little as it can.
United States (CENTCOM)
United States (CENTCOM)
The Pentagon named two of the seventeen American dead, 1st Lieutenant Tyler Feehan and Private Isabella Gonzales, both killed at Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, days after its Amman embassy had warned citizens away from Aqaba's airport and seaport. Washington is naming its own cost while flagging threats it declines to attribute publicly.
Iran
Iran
Iran said on Monday it disabled two oil tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz without its permission, asserting a right to license passage through the strait it borders. Tehran named neither vessel, and CENTCOM had already denied a comparable Iranian claim on 18 July.
Qatar
Qatar
Qatar moved from summoning Iran's deputy ambassador on 8 July to a dated written claim at the UN Security Council thirteen days later, citing Resolution 2817 and reserving its Article 51 right of self-defence. Doha is building a permanent record while still hosting CENTCOM's forward headquarters and mediating with Tehran.
CENTCOM
CENTCOM
CENTCOM confirmed a third American service member died in northern Iraq on 19 July clearing unexploded ordnance from a downed Iranian drone, and recovered unidentified remains at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. The Pentagon has framed its Khuzestan strikes as degrading IRGC capacity, a rationale that stretches to explain a reactor foundation with no nuclear material in it.