Skip to content
Briefings are running a touch slower this week while we rebuild the foundations.See roadmap
Iran Conflict 2026
3JUN

Iran: only allied ships may pass Hormuz

2 min read
09:04UTC
ConflictDeveloping

Iran's UN representative Ali Mousavi told the International Maritime Organisation this week that vessels belonging to or linked to 'aggressor parties' forfeit the right of innocent passage through the strait of Hormuz. 1 PressTV, Iran's official state broadcaster, confirmed the statement as Iran's official legal position. Permitted countries under the vetting system are India, China, Russia, Iraq, and Pakistan.

The IMO statement is the formal legal scaffolding for the parliamentary toll bill being drafted simultaneously. Iran is constructing a two-layer legal architecture: domestic statute (the Majlis bill) combined with formal international notification (the IMO submission) that pre-empts claims that Iran is acting without legal notice. The IMO notification mirrors Egypt's communication to the Suez Canal Users Association in 1956 after nationalisation.

Trump had claimed Iran offered Hormuz concessions , and Pakistan confirmed the 15-point US proposal . The IMO statement directly contradicts the framing that Iran is moving toward reopening the strait: Iran is doing the opposite, establishing formal legal grounds for continued selective passage that would survive any ceasefire under the pending domestic legislation. Pentagon planning for a Kharg Island assault continues ; the IMO statement is Iran's legal counter-move to that planning, establishing that any forcible passage would constitute a violation of Iran's defined legal framework rather than merely a military confrontation.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Iran told the international shipping authority that ships linked to countries attacking it lose the right to pass through the Strait of Hormuz freely. This would let Iran legally charge or block ships from the US, Israel, and their allies. International law says countries cannot block international waterways, but Iran argues it is defending itself.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Iran is exploiting a gap in UNCLOS: the convention assumes coastal states will not be at war with the states whose vessels transit their waters. The legal framework was not designed for a scenario where a coastal state is under active military attack.

By framing the toll as a defensive measure rather than an offensive blockade, Iran creates legal ambiguity that is harder to challenge than a straightforward closure.

First Reported In

Update #49 · Hormuz toll into law; Tangsiri killed

Times of Israel / CENTCOM· 27 Mar 2026
Read original
Different Perspectives
Lloyd's of London underwriters
Lloyd's of London underwriters
Lloyd's held its Hormuz war-risk rate at $10-14 million per voyage; underwriters need a UN Security Council resolution or formal PGSA de-listing before repricing, not a Senate testimony. The PGSA remains on the SDN list under EO 13224, so any vessel transiting a nominally reopened strait still deals with a sanctioned counterparty.
Saudi Arabia and Gulf states
Saudi Arabia and Gulf states
Brent crude at $95-97 on 2-3 June reflects Gulf producers benefiting from the conflict premium; a genuine Hormuz deal would likely cut that premium by $10-15 per barrel. Riyadh's $87 per barrel budget breakeven means the current price is comfortable, reducing the Gulf's urgency to push for a rapid settlement.
China
China
OFAC's Nobitex designation leaves China's informal bilateral currency-swap lines with Iran as the CBI's remaining rial-defence mechanism; Chinese financial institutions face secondary-sanctions risk if they interact with successor wallets. Beijing's MOFCOM Blocking Rules protect mainland refineries from direct designation but do not shield informal swap-line counterparties.
Lebanon / Hezbollah
Lebanon / Hezbollah
Lebanon's Washington delegation demanded full Israeli withdrawal and the return of 1.2 million displaced; Hezbollah deployed an FPV drone that killed an Israeli soldier at Yohmor while talks ran, demonstrating it can impose costs even at Israel's deepest penetration point. Lebanon's government cannot deliver the Hezbollah disarmament guarantee Israel demands.
Israel / Benjamin Netanyahu
Israel / Benjamin Netanyahu
Israeli forces seized Beaufort Castle above the Litani on 1-2 June and advanced to within 10 km of the Zaharani river while ceasefire delegations sat in Washington; the advance ran entirely outside the Beirut-only truce Netanyahu accepted on 1 June. Each kilometre taken raises Israel's withdrawal price before any permanent text is signed.
Iran: Foreign Ministry and domestic population
Iran: Foreign Ministry and domestic population
Araghchi rang six capitals in 48 hours to reopen talks the SNSC had suspended, calling the IRGC line 'speculation'; at home, 37 political prisoners were executed since 19 March while students marched in Tehran, Mashhad and Hamadan. The diplomatic thaw has not eased the state's wartime repression tempo.