Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen 70%. More than 150 tankers sit at anchor in open Gulf waters rather than attempting transit. CMA CGM, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, Nippon Yusen, Mitsui, and Kawasaki Kisen have all suspended sailings. CMA CGM imposed an emergency surcharge of $2,000–4,000 per container, effective immediately — a cost that will propagate through global supply chains within weeks.
The strait carries roughly 20% of the world's traded oil and approximately a quarter of global liquefied natural gas. Brent Crude sat at $73 before the strikes ; it opened Saturday at $82.37 (ID:108), an 11% rise driven by risk pricing rather than physical shortage. If the 70% traffic reduction holds, markets will begin pricing actual supply loss. Goldman Sachs had forecast Brent at $110; JP Morgan projected $120–130 under prolonged disruption and raised its US recession probability to 35% (ID:111). With tankers under direct fire, those figures describe a midpoint, not a ceiling.
The alternative — routing around the Cape of Good Hope — adds roughly 15 sailing days per laden tanker voyage, with proportional increases in fuel, crew, and scheduling costs. Import-dependent economies in Asia absorb the worst of this: Japan, South Korea, and India source between 60% and 80% of their crude from Gulf producers, all of it transiting Hormuz.
The global economy has not experienced a sustained physical closure of the strait in the post-globalisation era. The closest precedent — the 1984–88 Tanker War — disrupted traffic but never stopped it; the US Navy's Operation Earnest Will ensured a minimum flow of escorted tankers. Here, the US Navy is engaged in offensive operations, not convoy protection, and Gulf States that might otherwise support escort missions are themselves under bombardment — the UAE alone has absorbed 137 missiles and 209 drones (ID:97). The chokepoint the global economy treated as permanently open is, for the first time since it became the world's primary oil artery, functionally shut.
