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European Oil Markets
11JUN

Three ships a day in an 'open' strait

2 min read
08:58UTC

Kpler counted exactly three transits on each of 22, 23 and 24 July. CENTCOM's formal position is that the Strait of Hormuz remains open for transit.

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Key takeaway

Three independent trackers put Hormuz traffic at a fraction of pre-war levels while CENTCOM calls it open.

Kpler, the maritime data provider, recorded exactly three vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz on each of 22, 23 and 24 July, down from more than 20 a day before 15 July 1. CENTCOM's formal position is that the strait remains "open for transit".

Both statements can be true at once, and the gap between them is the thing worth understanding. Hormuz is 33km wide at its narrowest and carries about a fifth of the world's seaborne oil; transit passage through it is a right in international law that no naval force has formally revoked. Whether a master exercises that right depends on his charterer, his crew and his underwriters, none of whom are bound by CENTCOM's characterisation. Kpler's count includes vessel-level detail, among them the very large crude carrier New Giant carrying about two million barrels of Basrah crude for China 2.

Two other providers reach the same place by different routes. S&P Global counted 40 vessels across 17 to 19 July, about 13 a day, roughly half the previous week's rate. Lloyd's List put tanker and gas-carrier movements specifically at 30 in the week to 20 July against 90 in the week to 13 July, part of the 66% weekly fall we reported on 21 July . Saul Kavonic of MST Marquee, on the record, puts flows at about 15% of pre-war levels 3. Three commercial datasets built for paying clients rather than for public argument agree on direction and on magnitude.

The insurance market reached this conclusion first and has not revisited it. War-risk rates on Hormuz transits were repriced in mid-July, when the broker Marcus Baker of Marsh quoted them against a count of eight vessels a day , and they have held at that level while physical traffic fell to three. Underwriters priced a closure the traffic has since caught up with. The exposure now sits in what has not been priced: a single mine strike or boarding in the Larak-Qeshm corridor, the route vessels use to stay outside CENTCOM's written blockade order, could push mainstream insurers to withdraw cover rather than reprice it, which would close the strait commercially without any government declaring it closed.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The US military says the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which much of the world's oil passes, is "open for transit". But three separate companies that track ship movements say otherwise. Kpler recorded just three ships a day passing through between 22 and 24 July, down from more than 20 a day before 15 July. S&P Global counted about 13 ships a day in a similar recent stretch, roughly half the week before. In practice, almost nobody is sailing through, whatever the official language says, because the insurance cost of doing so has become too high for most shipping companies to accept.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

"Open for transit" and "commercially viable to transit" are two different claims, and the gap between them is what three trackers are actually measuring. CENTCOM's statement addresses the first, whether the US Navy will contest passage; the P&I clubs, the insurers that underwrite almost all commercial shipping, address the second, and they set premiums based on assessed risk of loss, not on any government's characterisation of the strait's status.

Once those premiums cross a threshold where insurance cost exceeds freight margin, as the current range does for many operators, rational shipowners divert regardless of what CENTCOM says, because the decision is made in a London or Scandinavian underwriting office, not in Washington or Tehran.

What could happen next?
  • Meaning

    A near-90% collapse in daily transits despite an "open" designation shows insurance markets, not naval statements, are setting the real terms of access to Hormuz.

  • Consequence

    Sustained traffic collapse compounds the Cape of Good Hope diversions already under way, adding weeks to voyage times for cargo bound for Europe and Asia.

Sources:Baird Maritime (citing Kpler)·Baird Maritime (citing Kpler)·The National
Mentions:Kpler →S&P Global Platts →Strait of Hormuz →Larak-Qeshm →China →Lloyd's List →Marsh →CENTCOM (US Central Command) →
First Reported In

Update #162 · Munitions, not Iran, halted US bombing

Baird Maritime (citing Kpler)· 26 Jul 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
This Event
Three ships a day in an 'open' strait
Legal openness and physical traffic have separated, and every insurer, charterer and Gulf exporter is pricing the second one.
Led to
Hormuz crossings fall by two thirds
Continues the collapse in Hormuz transits first measured at a 66% weekly fall on 21 July.
Occurred 21 Jul 2026
Read story →
Brent clears $87 as Hormuz traffic thins
War-risk premiums Marsh quoted against 17 July's transit count have held at 3-10% of hull value while transits fell further.
Occurred 17 Jul 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
US money managers (CFTC-tracked)
US money managers (CFTC-tracked)
US money managers had trimmed WTI net long positioning into July's rally, doubting the Hormuz premium would hold without freight or war-risk confirmation, and the crude stock build reported for the week to 17 July gives that scepticism a fundamentals basis. The 25 July CFTC data will show whether Brent's move above $100 changed their calculus.
Asian distillate buyers (Singapore)
Asian distillate buyers (Singapore)
Singapore's distillate holders kept retaining middle-distillate barrels as the East-West arbitrage window narrowed further this week, a pattern that sharpened as Fujairah light distillates hit a record low. Cargoes are being held rather than released west into the tightening Mediterranean market.
Bulgaria
Bulgaria
Bulgaria secured the removal of Lukoil founder Vagit Alekperov and Patriarch Kirill from the 21st package, with President Rumen Radev calling a personal listing 'shooting ourselves in the foot'. Sofia is protecting its position in Lukoil's EUR 3bn compensation claim over the 2023 Neftohim Burgas nationalisation.
Russia
Russia
Russia loses the roughly $14 a barrel of legal headroom the price-cap formula would have released toward $58, even as Urals continues trading below Moscow's $59 budget floor. The shadow-fleet insurance workaround that lets sanctioned crude clear above $44 in practice remains untouched by the freeze itself.
European Union
European Union
The EU adopted its 21st sanctions package on 23 July, freezing the $44 Russia oil cap for 12 months rather than letting the formula drift it toward $58, and listed shadow-fleet support vessels for the first time. The package cleared only after three failed Coreper votes.
Marine war-risk underwriters (Lloyd's-linked syndicates)
Marine war-risk underwriters (Lloyd's-linked syndicates)
War-risk syndicates lifted southern Red Sea hull premiums 150% to about 0.75% of hull value after the 20 July blockade declaration, still a seventh of the roughly 5% Hormuz band. Underwriters reset on realised loss, not declared threat, so the 23 July Encelia and Layla strikes set up the next re-mark.