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European Oil Markets
27JUL

Houthis threaten second chokepoint

1 min read
10:27UTC

Three days of sustained attacks on Israel establish that Ansar Allah can maintain tempo. The question is whether they close the strait.

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EconomicDeveloping
Key takeaway

The Houthi front is calibrated escalation, not symbolic gestures.

Ansar Allah struck Israel for a third consecutive day on 30 March . All projectiles were intercepted. Deputy Information Minister Mohammed Mansour described Bab al-Mandeb closure as "among our options" in a staged escalation, contingent on Israeli or US ground movement. 1

No formal blockade has been imposed. All vessels, including US- and Israeli-linked ships, continue to transit. But three days of attacks confirm sustainable operational tempo. Combined with near-total Hormuz closure, a formal Bab al-Mandeb blockade would place simultaneous pressure on the world's two most critical oil transit routes for the first time since the 1973 oil crisis. MARAD and UKMTO have already confirmed deliberate GNSS denial spanning both chokepoints .

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The Houthis control much of northern Yemen and have been attacking ships in the Red Sea since 2024. They are also allied with Iran. For three days running, they have fired missiles and drones toward Israel; all were intercepted. Bab al-Mandeb is a narrow strait between Yemen and Djibouti. About 10% of all world trade and a large share of oil from the Gulf to Europe passes through it. If the Houthis block it, combined with Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, two of the world's main oil routes would be shut simultaneously. That last happened in 1973 during the Arab oil embargo. It triggered a global recession. The Houthis have not closed Bab al-Mandeb yet, but their deputy minister said it is an option.

Sources:Al Jazeera
Mentions:UKMTO →Strait of Hormuz →Mohammed Mansour →Bab al-Mandeb →Houthis →
First Reported In

Update #53 · Trump drops Hormuz goal; toll becomes law

Al Jazeera· 31 Mar 2026
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Causes and effects
Caused by
Houthis strike Israel for third day
A third consecutive Houthi attack on Israel builds on the first two barrages of 28-30 March, establishing sustainable operational tempo.
Occurred 30 Mar 2026
Read story →
GPS blacked out across Gulf chokepoints
GNSS denial across both chokepoints supports the coordinated Houthi-Iran electronic warfare enabling the sustained missile campaign against Israel.
Occurred 29 Mar 2026
Read story →
This Event
Houthis threaten second chokepoint
A formal Bab al-Mandeb blockade combined with Hormuz closure would simultaneously shut the world's two most critical oil transit routes for the first time since 1973.
Different Perspectives
Asian buyers (India, Japan, China, South Korea)
Asian buyers (India, Japan, China, South Korea)
Asian refiners are absorbing 62% of Yanbu's 3.75m b/d flow, the bulk of Saudi Arabia's rerouted crude now clearing east rather than into the Atlantic basin. That destination split leaves Asian buyers more exposed to any single Yanbu-specific disruption than under the kingdom's normal multi-terminal export pattern.
Russia / Lukoil
Russia / Lukoil
Moscow loses the roughly $14-a-barrel legal headroom the frozen price-cap formula would otherwise have released toward $58, even as Urals trades below Russia's own $59 budget floor. The shadow-fleet insurance workaround the freeze leaves untouched remains the actual route sanctioned crude clears above $44 in practice.
European Union / Council
European Union / Council
Brussels adopted its 21st sanctions package on 23 July, letting boarding states confiscate and sell shadow-fleet cargo outright and freezing the G7 price cap's automatic adjustment to mid-2027, converting indefinite tanker storage into recoverable value for enforcers.
Freight and tanker desks
Freight and tanker desks
The Baltic Exchange's TD3C VLCC benchmark, most desks' reference for Gulf freight, prices a single-vessel voyage while Saudi shippers now pay for two Suezmax charters at roughly double the transit time. That gap leaves any book hedged purely on TD3C carrying unrecognised Suezmax basis risk on the bulk of Saudi rerouted volume.
Mediterranean refiners (Sines, Trieste, Augusta)
Mediterranean refiners (Sines, Trieste, Augusta)
Refiners already facing aframax rates up 198% month-on-month now watch Ain Sokhna draw 23% of Yanbu's rerouted crude through the same SUMED corridor they lean on for product backfill. Fujairah and ARA stocks near record lows leave little room to absorb a thinner Suez product flow.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
Riyadh has rerouted its entire western-coast crude book through Yanbu and Suez since the 23 July Bab el-Mandeb embargo, absorbing a roughly $2m-per-voyage Suezmax premium on every diverted cargo. The kingdom's fiscal breakeven near $108 a barrel makes that freight cost, not the blockade itself, the more durable drag on export economics.