Skip to content
You can now search across every topic, entity and event.What's new
European Oil Markets
23JUL

Iran's army widens Saeqeh to three states

3 min read
19:27UTC

Press TV put the Artesh's Operation Saeqeh at its 14th and 15th phases on 18 July, hitting US-linked sites in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain. The campaign has widened through eight nights of American bombing meant to degrade it.

EconomicDeveloping
Key takeaway

Iranian state media claims Saeqeh reached phases 14 and 15 across Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain.

Iranian state broadcaster Press TV put Operation Saeqeh, the campaign run by the Artesh, at its 14th and 15th phases on 18 July, striking US-linked facilities in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain 1. The Artesh is Iran's regular army, constitutionally confined to territorial defence and institutionally separate from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which runs its own strikes and its own claims.

Two days earlier the Artesh had claimed the tenth phase against Kuwait's Ali Al Salem Air Base and Bahrain's Sheikh Isa airbase, while the IRGC separately claimed a Jordan strike the same day . That doubling of claimants on one target set is not a bookkeeping curiosity. It tracks which Iranian institution wants credit for hitting Americans, and the base where the Americans died on Friday sits on the handover between them.

The phase numbers come from Iranian state media and may be inflated for effect. Tehran's domestic outlets have gone considerably further on casualties: Fars and Tabnak put the cumulative American toll since February at 16 killed and more than 430 wounded 2. No source outside Iranian media supports those figures. Strip the numbering and the claim that survives is narrower: the campaign kept running and widened across three countries while US aircraft were flying nightly against the systems that fire it, and the 14 July Gulf-wide retaliation against the same three states shows the target list was set before the bombing began. Tehran's stated rationale is that bases flying strikes into Iran are lawful military targets wherever they sit.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Iran actually has two separate armed forces: the regular army, called the Artesh, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, which is a more ideological force loyal directly to Iran's Supreme Leader. Iranian state television said on 18 July that the Artesh's own campaign against American military bases, called Operation Saeqeh (Persian for Lightning), had reached its 14th and 15th stages and now covered bases in three countries: Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain. That the regular army is running its own numbered campaign, separate from the IRGC's strikes, shows Iran is fighting this war through two different military organisations rather than one unified command.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Iran's constitution confines the Artesh to territorial defence, while the IRGC answers directly to the Supreme Leader and has no such limit; Operation Saeqeh's targeting of US basing in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain, states outside Iran's borders, is the Artesh operating past its constitutional remit under a wartime footing that has not been formally declared.

That gap between the Artesh's legal mandate and its actual conduct is what makes its own phase numbering worth tracking: each new phase is a data point on how far the regular army's leadership judges it can stretch that mandate without a Supreme Leader override.

What could happen next?
  • Meaning

    A named, numbered campaign that survives eight nights of US bombing without pausing its own numbering suggests the Artesh's targeting list and pace were set independently of what CENTCOM has been able to degrade.

  • Risk

    Two Iranian forces claiming strikes on the same host states raises the chance a single incident gets contradictory Iranian attribution, complicating any US or Gulf response calculus.

First Reported In

Update #156 · First American deaths in Jordan

Press TV· 19 Jul 2026
Read original
Different Perspectives
US money managers (CFTC-tracked)
US money managers (CFTC-tracked)
US money managers had trimmed WTI net long positioning into July's rally, doubting the Hormuz premium would hold without freight or war-risk confirmation, and the crude stock build reported for the week to 17 July gives that scepticism a fundamentals basis. The 25 July CFTC data will show whether Brent's move above $100 changed their calculus.
Asian distillate buyers (Singapore)
Asian distillate buyers (Singapore)
Singapore's distillate holders kept retaining middle-distillate barrels as the East-West arbitrage window narrowed further this week, a pattern that sharpened as Fujairah light distillates hit a record low. Cargoes are being held rather than released west into the tightening Mediterranean market.
Bulgaria
Bulgaria
Bulgaria secured the removal of Lukoil founder Vagit Alekperov and Patriarch Kirill from the 21st package, with President Rumen Radev calling a personal listing 'shooting ourselves in the foot'. Sofia is protecting its position in Lukoil's EUR 3bn compensation claim over the 2023 Neftohim Burgas nationalisation.
Russia
Russia
Russia loses the roughly $14 a barrel of legal headroom the price-cap formula would have released toward $58, even as Urals continues trading below Moscow's $59 budget floor. The shadow-fleet insurance workaround that lets sanctioned crude clear above $44 in practice remains untouched by the freeze itself.
European Union
European Union
The EU adopted its 21st sanctions package on 23 July, freezing the $44 Russia oil cap for 12 months rather than letting the formula drift it toward $58, and listed shadow-fleet support vessels for the first time. The package cleared only after three failed Coreper votes.
Marine war-risk underwriters (Lloyd's-linked syndicates)
Marine war-risk underwriters (Lloyd's-linked syndicates)
War-risk syndicates lifted southern Red Sea hull premiums 150% to about 0.75% of hull value after the 20 July blockade declaration, still a seventh of the roughly 5% Hormuz band. Underwriters reset on realised loss, not declared threat, so the 23 July Encelia and Layla strikes set up the next re-mark.