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European Oil Markets
16JUL

Two US carriers stay, blockade runs on

3 min read
09:39UTC

The USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS George H.W. Bush remained on station in the Gulf as of 18 June, the blockade still redirecting vessels, despite the memorandum's clause that it be removed immediately.

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Key takeaway

Two carriers on station are the proof the order to lift the blockade never reached the fleet.

Two US carrier strike groups, built around the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS George H.W. Bush, remained on station in the Gulf region as of 17-18 June 1. CENTCOM (US Central Command), the US military command for the Middle East, has issued no drawdown order, and the naval blockade continues to redirect vessels, despite the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) clause that the blockade be "removed immediately."

The blockade is the apparatus that has throttled Iranian seaborne trade through the war, turning the strait into a corridor ships transit only on US sufferance. Trump signed the MOU and ordered the blockade lifted on 16 June , but CENTCOM kept it running pending a signed instrument it has not received. The carriers on station are the physical evidence that the order has not reached the water.

The shipping industry reads operations, not press releases. Insurers, mine-clearance crews and tanker owners need an on-water change before commercial transits resume; a memorandum does not move a hull. Hormuz logged zero new tanker transits the day after Trump signed . The Geneva signing ceremony was scrapped, and Baghaei confirmed the text was finalised electronically, the presidents' signatures applied digitally rather than at any podium.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Think of the naval blockade as a lock on a gate that is run by one department and the key as a different document held by another department. When the US President signed the Islamabad MOU, he was handing over a promise to unlock the gate. But the military commanders operating the lock need a separate written order from the Defence Department before they can actually turn the key. As of 18 June, that order had not arrived. So both aircraft carriers, the Abraham Lincoln and the George H.W. Bush, stayed in position, redirecting ships just as before. The gate remained locked. Separately, the sea still has live floating mines in it. Even if the lock were opened, no commercial ship would sail through a minefield without a guarantee that the mines had been removed.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The blockade-stays problem has a structural cause independent of politics: the CENTCOM enforcement mechanism runs on a separate chain of command from the diplomatic track that produced the MOU. Trump signed the MOU as the US executive; the blockade is operationalised by CENTCOM via the Secretary of Defense chain. Without a National Security Council decision memo, a SecDef order, and a CENTCOM operational directive, the blockade runs by default.

Mine-clearance progress also blocks the blockade lift. Hormuz was still seeded with active mines on 18 June. BIMCO and the International Chamber of Shipping have stated publicly that commercial vessels will not transit an uncleared minefield regardless of what a ceasefire agreement says. The operational prerequisite for the blockade lift, cleared lanes, does not yet exist.

What could happen next?
  • Risk

    An incident between an on-station carrier and an IRGC vessel, as happened on 15 June with the 'last warning' radio transmission, could escalate to an exchange of fire that voids the MOU before the 19 June ceremony.

    Immediate · Reported
  • Consequence

    The carrier stay gives Iran a public talking point: the US blockade continues despite the signed MOU, symmetrically matching Iran's own non-compliance on Lebanon.

    Short term · Assessed
  • Precedent

    If the blockade does not begin to lift within seven days of signing, insurers will treat the MOU as a rhetorical instrument rather than an operational change, maintaining war-risk exclusions and keeping effective transit near zero.

    Short term · Assessed
Sources:Al Jazeera·The War Zone
Mentions:CENTCOM (US Central Command) →Esmaeil Baqaei →Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding →Vietnam →Islamabad →Geneva →The War Zone →Paris →North Korea →Pentagon →USS Abraham Lincoln →USS George H.W. Bush →
First Reported In

Update #131 · Iran deal's first death tests the text

Al Jazeera· 18 Jun 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
Caused by
Trump signed Hormuz open; war ran on
Trump signed the MOU and ordered the blockade lifted but CENTCOM received no signed drawdown instrument, leaving the carriers on station.
Occurred 16 Jun 2026
Read story →
This Event
Two US carriers stay, blockade runs on
Insurers and shippers need an on-water change, not a memorandum, before tankers move.
Led to
Oil prices a Hormuz reopening that has not happened
Brent pricing a blockade lift that two on-station carrier strike groups and no CENTCOM drawdown order refute.
Occurred 18 Jun 2026
Read story →
The carriers that did not leave
The USS Abraham Lincoln and George H.W. Bush holding station on 18 June (event 8) continued the posture already established per ID:4308 with still no drawdown order issued.
Occurred 18 Jun 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
Indian refiners
Indian refiners
Indian refiners kept lifting discounted Urals as the India/Baltic price split widened past $9-10 a barrel, a gap that only grows as GL X1's Iranian wind-down cuts an alternative discounted grade off the market by 17 July. Cheaper Russian feedstock is being locked in while it lasts.
Chinese refiners
Chinese refiners
Chinese refiners gain leverage as the Urals-Brent discount widens, since Beijing's state buyers already source discounted Russian barrels near the fiscal floor unaffected by Western insurance costs. A wider discount, if it holds past 23 July, lets them lock in cheaper term contracts regardless of the cap's outcome.
US money managers (CFTC-tracked)
US money managers (CFTC-tracked)
Managed money trimmed WTI net length into the rally, positioning that reflects doubt the Hormuz premium survives without freight or war-risk confirmation. The Brent-WTI spread widening almost entirely on the Brent leg supports that scepticism about a broad-based repricing.
OPEC+ (Saudi-led subgroup)
OPEC+ (Saudi-led subgroup)
Saudi Arabia is defending market share through a fourth straight 188kbd August hike even as OPEC's own July MOMR cut 2026 demand growth for the fourth consecutive month. At a $108-111 fiscal breakeven, every added barrel costs Riyadh revenue it cannot recoup, so the hike reads as a positioning signal, not a demand bet.
Greek shipping registries
Greek shipping registries
Greece, backed by Cyprus and Malta, is pushing a three-month cap-freeze compromise against the Commission's freeze to January 2027 ahead of the 23 July vote. Athens' and Valletta's combined tanker registrations mean a shorter review gives their insurers more frequent chances to reprice risk on Russian cargoes.
Russia (Deputy PM Alexander Novak)
Russia (Deputy PM Alexander Novak)
Novak extended the diesel export restriction to producers on 8 July, the first producer-binding curb of the war, protecting the domestic pump price ahead of any refinery repair timeline. Urals still trades below Russia's $59 budget floor even as Brent gained, so the ban trades export revenue for fiscal stability at home.