27JUL

Mourning and fireworks on Iran streets

3 min read

09:24UTC

While Western cameras fixated on celebrations, pro-regime mourning crowds also gathered across Iran — a country too divided for any single image to represent.

← Back to Wind, not peace, sank the German spark Jump to analysis ↓

EconomicDeveloping

Key takeaway

The coexistence of mourning and celebration crowds in Iran reflects a genuine societal fracture rather than a unified national response, and will shape the political landscape of whatever comes next.

Pro-regime mourning crowds gathered across Iran in the hours after Khamenei's death was confirmed , a parallel reality to the fireworks and 'Death to Khamenei' chants in Tehran, Karaj, Borazjan, and Mamasani . Western broadcasters led overwhelmingly with the celebrations. The mourners received less airtime. Both were real.

The Islamic Republic has never lacked a domestic constituency. The Basij and IRGC employ or subsidise millions of families. The bonyads — revolutionary foundations controlling an estimated 20% of Iran's GDP — distribute patronage deep into provincial towns and rural communities. Religious conservatives in Qom, Mashhad, and the smaller shrine cities hold genuine reverence for the velayat-e faqih, the guardianship of the jurist that Khamenei embodied. A framework that treats 87 million Iranians as a monolithic bloc awaiting liberation has failed every time it has been tested — in 1953, in 2003 next door, in 2011 across the Arab world.

Separating genuine grief from orchestrated display is impossible under current conditions. The IRGC's reported deployment of armed members on motorbikes through Tehran — cited by Middle East Eye from unverified sources — means mourning crowds gathered under the watch of the same apparatus that killed an estimated 36,000 protesters in January . A crowd assembled under visible armed surveillance is not the same as one assembled freely, and no camera resolves that ambiguity.

Iran is fighting two simultaneous crises: external military attack and internal state fracture. The National Security Council's instruction for Tehran residents to evacuate, the empty supermarket shelves in northern Tehran, and the IRGC's street patrols all indicate the security apparatus considers domestic control at least as urgent as the foreign threat. During the Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988), the Khomeini government weaponised external conflict to consolidate internal power. Whether a decapitated state can execute the same manoeuvre is the open question.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

When news of Khamenei's death spread, Iran did not react as one. In some parts of the country, people set off fireworks, took to the streets in joy, and celebrated what they saw as the fall of a repressive regime. In other parts, people gathered to mourn — whether out of genuine grief, religious duty, or fear of what happens next. Both crowds are real. This is not a country that has been 'liberated' and is uniformly grateful, nor is it a country uniformly devastated by a foreign attack. It is a deeply divided society processing an enormous shock through contradictory but equally authentic responses.

Deep Analysis

Synthesis

The dual crowd is the most honest single image of what Iran actually is: a country in which the same event — the death of the supreme leader under foreign bombs — produces both relief and grief, sometimes within the same family. Western media's tendency to amplify the celebrations and authoritarian media's tendency to show only the mourning and the bombs are both acts of political curation rather than journalism. The political implications are profound: any post-Khamenei governance arrangement must reckon with a society that is genuinely split, not one that has been uniformly liberated. The mourning crowds are not simply regime plants or coerced participants — they represent a constituency that will need to be accommodated in any stable settlement, and whose alienation will be a resource for any actor seeking to destabilise whatever comes next.

Root Causes

The pro-regime crowd reflects constituencies with genuine stakes in the survival of the Islamic Republic's order: families of IRGC members, religious conservatives whose identity and community infrastructure is bound to the clerical state, and those who genuinely feared the alternative more than the regime. The January 2026 massacre (Event 10) did not eliminate these constituencies; it radicalised both sides of the divide simultaneously. Decades of state investment in religious and ideological infrastructure — mosques, seminaries, state media — have produced a genuine social base for the Islamic Republic that cannot be dismissed as pure performance, even if its size relative to the opposition is uncertain.

Escalation

The existence of organised pro-regime mourning crowds alongside street celebrations creates conditions for inter-communal confrontation. If IRGC units (Event 2) are protecting or facilitating mourning gatherings while simultaneously intimidating celebratory crowds, the potential for direct violent clashes between the two groups increases significantly. Historical transitions from authoritarian regimes in which the security apparatus retains armed capacity — Iraq 2003, Libya 2011 — demonstrate that dual-crowd dynamics can rapidly transition from parallel protest to active conflict. The interim council's ability to prevent such confrontation is uncertain given the disruption to command structures following the strikes.

What could happen next?

1 meaning2 risk1 consequence1 precedent

Meaning
The dual crowd reveals that Iran is not experiencing a unified liberation but a contested societal fracture that will define the political character of whatever governance follows.
Immediate · Assessed
Risk
Direct confrontation between mourning and celebration crowds, particularly if IRGC units align with one side, could trigger inter-communal violence in Tehran and other major cities.
Immediate · Assessed
Consequence
Pro-regime constituencies, even if currently a minority, represent a durable political base that any interim or successor government will need to manage rather than simply suppress.
Medium term · Assessed
Risk
The societal fracture visible in dual crowds will be exploited by external actors — Russia, China, and regional proxies — to sustain instability and prevent consolidation of any pro-Western successor government.
Medium term · Assessed
Precedent
If mourning crowds provide a social base for IRGC remnants to reconstitute political authority, Iran could follow a trajectory similar to post-2003 Iraq, where regime remnants became the nucleus of sustained insurgency.
Long term · Suggested

Source Landscape

This story draws on mixed-leaning sources from United Kingdom

United Kingdom×2

The simultaneous existence of mourning and celebration crowds following the death of an authoritarian leader is not unprecedented.

After the death of Joseph Stalin in 1953, Soviet citizens publicly mourned while many privately celebrated; the distinction between performed and genuine grief was later documented extensively.

Following Saddam Hussein's capture in 2003, Iraq similarly split between those who mourned the old order and those who celebrated its fall, with the split broadly tracking sectarian and ethnic lines.

Why it’s relevant now

The Iranian parallel is more complex than either precedent because the split does not map cleanly onto ethnicity or sect — it reflects the depth of polarisation produced by a government that killed tens of thousands of its own citizens six weeks before its leader's death.

Political scientists studying authoritarian transitions — including those at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the European Council on Foreign Relations — have consistently found that post-authoritarian fracture along loyalist/opposition lines is more dangerous when the incumbent security apparatus remains armed and the opposition lacks unified leadership. Iran's situation is complicated further by the absence of a credible domestic opposition organisation capable of channelling either crowd toward a political process.

The coexistence of mourning and celebration in the same city simultaneously is a diagnostic indicator of what transitional justice scholars call a 'contested legitimacy' environment, in which neither side accepts the other's right to define the national narrative.

Sources:Middle East Eye·Iran International

Mentions:Qom →National Security Council (Iran) →United Nations Security Council (UNSC) →Karaj →European Council on Foreign Relations →Iran-Iraq War →Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) →Basij →Iran →Tehran →Middle East Eye →

First Reported In

Update #5 · Bread lines and IRGC fear inside Iran

Middle East Eye· 1 Mar 2026

Read original →

Causes and effects

Caused by

Iran confirms Khamenei killed by Israel

Confirmation of Khamenei's death generated both celebrations and pro-regime mourning — polarised domestic response

Occurred 1 Mar 2026

Read story →

This Event

Mourning and fireworks on Iran streets

The simultaneous mourning and celebrating reveals that Iran's population is deeply fractured along lines that predate the strikes, complicating any narrative — Western or Iranian government — that claims to speak for 'the Iranian people' as a whole.

Different Perspectives

Slovakia

Slovakia says it dropped its hold-out on the 21st sanctions package only after Ursula von der Leyen personally signed written gas-price and supply guarantees. The Council of the European Union's own 17,238-character release on the package names neither Slovakia nor any guarantee, leaving Bratislava's account unconfirmed by the institutional record.

EU regulator on capacity mechanisms

Brussels is watching Germany's StromVKG first 4.5 GW capacity auction move toward its 8 September bid deadline without a resolved state-aid clearance for the 9 GW 2026 programme's gas-plant subsidies. A negative spark spread this deep on cheap gas strengthens the case for subsidised dispatchable capacity, the same case still awaiting a state-aid ruling.

French power exporters

French day-ahead cleared EUR 41.13/MWh on Sunday 26 July, EUR 43.09 below Germany, on wind more than doubling and a demand trough, not on any nuclear recovery. The desk expects the discount to hold only as long as French wind and weekend demand repeat, not as a durable nuclear-cost advantage.

European gas storage operator

A storage operator stopped bidding for prompt TTF cargoes on 21 July, reading the strike-halt unwind as the start of a fuel-side correction rather than a floor. It expects the gap between prompt and forward gas to keep narrowing as the war premium continues leaving the curve.

German gas-fired power fleet

German gas-fired plants cut output from 4.37 GW to 2.85 GW between 24 and 27 July, even as TTF fell 8 per cent, because below roughly minus EUR 40/MWh the fuel price stopped deciding dispatch. The fleet expects no relief until wind eases or StromVKG's first 4.5 GW auction adds capacity.

French industrial power consumers

France's day-ahead discount to Germany has nearly closed as TTF and EUA rise together on both sides of the border, eroding the arbitrage French industry relied on through the summer. A standing negative spark removes the German demand buffer that kept that spread wide.