13JUL

Bank of Russia poll sees 7.1% inflation

2 min read

10:12UTC

Analysts polled by the Central Bank of Russia now expect 7.1% inflation this year and a wider budget deficit, even with a higher oil price.

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EconomicAssessed

Key takeaway

Russian forecasters expect a wider deficit even with oil at $70.

Analysts polled by the Central Bank of Russia raised their forecast for this year's inflation to 7.1%, from 6.6%, in a survey the bank published on 14 October⁠¹. They now expect the key rate, the bank's benchmark interest rate, to average 12.8% next year, up from 12.4%. They see the consolidated budget deficit at 3.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) this year, from 3.5%, and 3.0% next year, from 2.6%.

The same analysts raised this year's oil price assumption to $70 a barrel, from $64, yet still widened their deficit forecasts⁠². If oil earns more and the deficit grows anyway, the analysts expect spending to outrun revenue. Russia's Finance Ministry is gloomier on oil: it has already cut its own oil and gas revenue forecast for the year. The analysts' deficit figure includes regional budgets, so it does not compare directly with the ministry's federal plan.

The bank held its rate in September and named fuel prices as an inflation driver. It meets again on 23 October, and the analysts' forecast implies the rate staying at 14% for the rest of the year, The Moscow Times reported⁠³.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Russia's central bank asks private economists for their forecasts every few months. The latest survey shows them expecting prices to rise faster this year than they thought before. They also expect the government to spend more than it earns, even though they think oil, Russia's main export, will sell for more. The central bank sets its interest rate on 23 October. High inflation makes it harder to cut rates, which keeps loans expensive for Russian businesses and families.

What could happen next?

Consequence
Inflation forecasts above 7% make a Bank of Russia rate cut on 23 October less likely.

Sources:Central Bank of Russia·The Moscow Times

Mentions:Central Bank of Russia →Russia →Moscow Times →Moscow →

First Reported In

Update #29 · Trump waives his own 500% Russia tariffs

Central Bank of Russia· 17 Oct 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Bank of Russia holds rate and names fuel

Analysts raised their rate path after the bank's September hold at 14%.

Occurred 11 Sept 2026

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Russia plans record 17.1tn for defence

Wider deficit forecasts follow the Finance Ministry's cut to its oil and gas revenue forecast.

Occurred 30 Sept 2026

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This Event

Bank of Russia poll sees 7.1% inflation

Russia's forecasters expect dearer money for longer and a deficit that grows even when oil earns more.

Different Perspectives

Cross-border power traders

The France-Germany day-ahead spread flipped from a EUR 17.20 German premium on 1 August to a EUR 4.15 French premium on 3 August, the same day French curtailment peaked. They cannot yet attribute the flip to curtailment alone, since a like-for-like overnight comparison shows French nuclear output rising while wind fell and demand returned on the weekday step.

EDF

River-cooling limits took 7.6 GW, 12 per cent of its fleet, offline on 3 August, the highest curtailment since the heatwave began, with an easing forecast to 4.3 GW on 4 August and 3 GW after. It manages the cut as a recurring seasonal constraint, expecting it to lift with river temperature, not repair.

Gasunie

TTF, the Dutch hub it operates, drifted to roughly EUR 55 to 58 per MWh across the window, staying inside its recent range through both the German spark reversal and the French curtailment. It reads a flat hub price as evidence that neither event this window carried enough weight to move the fuel leg on its own.

German gas-fired generators

Record German solar of 18,761 MW on 2 August pushed the clean spark spread to minus 18.48 EUR/MWh, a loss-making day, before it returned to plus 16.20 on 3 August. They now price dispatch against post-solar residual load rather than wind alone, since the sign flipped inside 48 hours on unchanged fuel and carbon costs.

European Commission (DG Energy)

Its implementing-measures register logged transposition notices from only Portugal and Slovakia against Wednesday's Article 94 deadline for Directive (EU) 2024/1788, with 25 states silent. It expects the register to fill only gradually, since filing routinely lags legislating and any infringement track against non-notifying states runs on a slower clock than the deadline itself.

Spain's LNG terminal operators

Spain's 9,145 GWh terminal inventory is the largest single stock in the EU LNG network, an option value that can reroute cargoes wherever the winter strip pays best rather than a cavern gas obligation tied to a fixed date. That flexibility matters more as Germany's cavern shortfall pushes more of the winter security question onto import infrastructure.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.