15APR

EU gas storage hits 2018 low

3 min read

13:33UTC

Europe enters injection season with tanks barely a quarter full, the thinnest cushion in five years.

← Back to TTF EUR 42 as Russian LNG ban enters range Jump to analysis ↓

EconomicDeveloping

Key takeaway

EU storage at 28.92% is the lowest April level since 2018, with both Russian gas and flexible LNG impaired.

EU underground gas storage stood at 28.92% full (327 TWh) this week, according to GIE AGSI+ data. That is the lowest level for this point in the year since 2018, and six to twenty percentage points below the five-year seasonal average. Europe must now refill from a deficit while its two traditional safety valves, Russian pipeline gas and flexible LNG supply, are both impaired.

The country-level picture sharpens the risk. Germany, the EU's largest storage holder, sat at just 23% three days later. The Netherlands is at 5.5%, France at 24%. Only Spain (above half full) and Portugal (91.7%) sit comfortably, insulated by Iberian renewables and hydropower.

The seasonal context matters. In April 2022, the last comparable trough, storage touched 26% before a massive injection campaign and demand-reduction mandates pushed levels to 95% by November. But that spring, Russian pipeline gas was still flowing through Q2 and global LNG was not constrained by a Hormuz closure. Neither lever is available now. The refill arithmetic starts from a deeper deficit with fewer supply options.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Gas storage is Europe's energy reserve. Each autumn, European countries pump natural gas underground into giant caverns. Each winter, they draw it out to heat homes and run power stations when demand exceeds what pipelines can deliver in real time. Right now, those reserves are unusually low. At 28.9% full, Europe has less gas in the ground for early April than at any point since 2018. The problem: refilling from this level, while global LNG supply is disrupted and prices are high, will be significantly more expensive than in recent years.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

Two independent constraints compounded the storage drawdown. First, the 2025-26 heating season ran 4-6% colder than the ten-year average across Central and Northern Europe from November through February, increasing residential and district-heating gas demand at rates that injection-season planning had not provisioned for.

Second, the cessation of Russian pipeline transit via Ukraine in January 2025 permanently removed approximately 12-14 billion cubic metres per year from EU supply, a volume that had been partially offset by Norwegian and Algerian ramp-ups but not fully replaced. The resulting structural supply gap left storages drawing down faster per cold day than they had historically, with no flexible pipeline source to slow the rate of withdrawal.

Escalation

Storage levels through April will determine whether the Commission's reduced 80% target is achievable or whether emergency measures (demand curtailments, cross-border supply obligations) become necessary by October. The first two weeks of injection season are already running below the rate required to close the deficit at current capacity.

What could happen next?

Risk
If injection rates fail to improve from April lows, EU storage will fall short of the revised 80% November target, triggering emergency gas regulation provisions.
Consequence
European industrial gas consumers face sustained spot price exposure above EUR 40/MWh through at least Q3 2026, compressing margins in energy-intensive sectors.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Primary parallel: In winter 2017-18, EU storage started the injection season at 22% fill (April 2018), the previous modern low. That year, Germany and Austria activated emergency demand-reduction measures in October 2018 when storage failed to reach the then-informal 77% seasonal target by November, causing industrial curtailments in the ammonia and glass sectors.

Counter-parallel: In 2013-14, EU storage entered injection season at 32% fill following the Polar Vortex winter, yet reached 86% by October 2014 because LNG spot prices were low and pipeline gas from Norway and Algeria ran at capacity. The 2026 position differs structurally: LNG spot is constrained by the Hormuz disruption and Asian competition on multiple dimensions beyond price.

The 28.92% starting point implies a refill requirement of approximately 513 TWh to reach 80% by November, based on GIE AGSI+ total EU storage capacity of roughly 1,130 TWh. At EUR 47/MWh (current TTF), that volume costs approximately EUR 24 billion in gas commodity costs alone, excluding regasification capacity charges and transportation tariffs.

The structural risk for forward markets is that storage operators bidding aggressively for injections in April-May will compete directly with industrial buyers, pushing the summer-winter spread wider. The Caisse des Depots estimated in its April 2026 EU energy note that each 1% rise in the summer injection premium translates to approximately EUR 350 million in additional EU industrial energy costs.

Consensus view: Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) analyst Mike Fulwood assessed that a sub-30% April starting point eliminates the traditional buffer against a cold May, meaning any late-spring demand spike arrives with no shock absorber beyond LNG spot purchasing at the worst-possible seasonal price.

Counter-view: Rystad Energy's European gas desk argues the headline fill figure understates working-gas availability because 2022-era cavern capacity expansions added roughly 18 TWh of usable volume not captured in percentage comparisons against pre-2022 baselines, making the 2026 deficit less severe than a raw percentage comparison implies.

Key tension: Whether the volumetric expansion of EU storage capacity since 2022 materially reduces the practical risk at 28.9% fill, or whether the injection rate ceiling (not the absolute volume) is the binding constraint this summer.

Sources:GIE AGSI+ / Energy News Beat·GIE AGSI+ / Energy News Beat·GIE AGSI+ / Energy News Beat

Mentions:GIE AGSI+ →European Union →France →Rystad Energy →Portugal →Netherlands →Prima →Norway →Germany →Algeria →Russia →

First Reported In

Update #1 · Europe's thinnest gas cushion since 2018

GIE AGSI+ / Energy News Beat· 13 Apr 2026

Read original →

Causes and effects

This Event

EU gas storage hits 2018 low

The 28.92% fill level sets the baseline deficit for the entire 2026 refill campaign and will determine how aggressively utilities must compete for LNG cargoes through summer.

Led to

EU gas storage at 29.55% on 13 April

EU storage reaching 29.55% on 13 April represents a 0.63pp gain from the 28.92% baseline recorded on 9 April.

Occurred 13 Apr 2026

Read story →

Different Perspectives

Cross-border power traders

The France-Germany day-ahead spread flipped from a EUR 17.20 German premium on 1 August to a EUR 4.15 French premium on 3 August, the same day French curtailment peaked. They cannot yet attribute the flip to curtailment alone, since a like-for-like overnight comparison shows French nuclear output rising while wind fell and demand returned on the weekday step.

EDF

River-cooling limits took 7.6 GW, 12 per cent of its fleet, offline on 3 August, the highest curtailment since the heatwave began, with an easing forecast to 4.3 GW on 4 August and 3 GW after. It manages the cut as a recurring seasonal constraint, expecting it to lift with river temperature, not repair.

Gasunie

TTF, the Dutch hub it operates, drifted to roughly EUR 55 to 58 per MWh across the window, staying inside its recent range through both the German spark reversal and the French curtailment. It reads a flat hub price as evidence that neither event this window carried enough weight to move the fuel leg on its own.

German gas-fired generators

Record German solar of 18,761 MW on 2 August pushed the clean spark spread to minus 18.48 EUR/MWh, a loss-making day, before it returned to plus 16.20 on 3 August. They now price dispatch against post-solar residual load rather than wind alone, since the sign flipped inside 48 hours on unchanged fuel and carbon costs.

European Commission (DG Energy)

Its implementing-measures register logged transposition notices from only Portugal and Slovakia against Wednesday's Article 94 deadline for Directive (EU) 2024/1788, with 25 states silent. It expects the register to fill only gradually, since filing routinely lags legislating and any infringement track against non-notifying states runs on a slower clock than the deadline itself.

Spain's LNG terminal operators

Spain's 9,145 GWh terminal inventory is the largest single stock in the EU LNG network, an option value that can reroute cargoes wherever the winter strip pays best rather than a cavern gas obligation tied to a fixed date. That flexibility matters more as Germany's cavern shortfall pushes more of the winter security question onto import infrastructure.