Skip to content
You can now search across every topic, entity and event.What's new
European Energy Markets
18JUN

Houthis strike Israel for third day

2 min read
09:57UTC

Two drones intercepted over Israel. Three attacks in three days confirms sustainable tempo, not a one-off provocation. The Houthi deputy minister named Bab al-Mandeb closure as 'among our options.'

← Back to German spark spread flips +EUR 15 in 48hrsJump to analysis ↓
EconomicAssessed
Key takeaway

Three days of attacks confirm Houthi tempo is sustainable.

Houthi forces fired at Israel for a third consecutive day on 30 March. Two drones were intercepted by Israeli defences. 1 Deputy Information Minister Mohammed Mansour described Bab al-Mandeb closure as 'among our options' in a staged escalation programme. Blockade was described as 'likely' in the next phase if Israel targets Hodeidah port or Yemeni civilian infrastructure.

Ansar Allah entered the war with ballistic missiles on 28 March and threatened Bab al-Mandeb closure the same day . A third consecutive attack now establishes sustainable operational tempo. Hezbollah fired 600 projectiles at Israel in a single 24-hour period on 28 March . Iran's proxy network is activating in sequence, each front requiring separate defensive resources from a coalition already stretched by the primary conflict.

Houthi entry came the day after Pakistan confirmed US-Iran indirect talks had stalled and the day Iran published its five conditions for ending the war . Tehran coordinated the opening of this front. The Long War Journal reports that Houthi leaders conditioned further escalation on whether other nations join anti-Iran operations or use the Red Sea for strikes.

Combined with near-total Hormuz closure, formal Bab al-Mandeb blockade would place simultaneous pressure on the world's two most critical oil transit routes for the first time since the 1973 oil crisis. MARAD and UKMTO have already confirmed deliberate GNSS denial spanning from Hormuz to Bab al-Mandeb . An electronic warfare corridor now links both chokepoints.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The Houthis are an armed group based in Yemen that has been fighting a civil war there for years. They also have a history of firing at ships in the Red Sea. Now they are firing drones and missiles at Israel. This is the third day in a row they have attacked. The attacks are being intercepted, but three consecutive days of attacks is different from a one-off strike: it shows they can sustain the effort. The Houthis have also suggested they might close the Bab al-Mandeb strait, which is the narrow water passage between Yemen and Africa. Oil tankers going from the Gulf to Europe pass through it. If both the Strait of Hormuz (near Iran) and Bab al-Mandeb (near Yemen) are closed or disrupted at the same time, the world's two biggest oil shipping routes would be blocked simultaneously, something that has not happened since 1973.

What could happen next?
  • Risk

    If Israel strikes Hodeidah port or Yemeni civilian infrastructure, Houthi officials have stated Bab al-Mandeb closure becomes operational, creating simultaneous dual-chokepoint pressure not seen since 1973.

  • Meaning

    Three consecutive attacks on Israel establish the Houthis as a sustainable second front in the conflict, requiring separate Israeli and US defensive resources distinct from the primary Iran campaign.

Sources:Al Jazeera / Middle East Monitor·Al Jazeera / Middle East Monitor
Mentions:Mohammed Mansour →Pakistan →Strait of Hormuz →Houthis →Bab al-Mandeb →Hodeidah →
First Reported In

Update #52 · Trump wants Iran's oil; 3,500 Marines land

Al Jazeera / Middle East Monitor· 30 Mar 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
Caused by
Houthis fire second barrage at Israel
The second Houthi barrage on 29 March (ID:1686) was followed by a third consecutive attack on 30 March, confirming sustainable operational tempo not a one-off provocation.
Occurred 29 Mar 2026
Read story →
This Event
Houthis strike Israel for third day
If the Houthis close Bab al-Mandeb, the world's two most important oil transit chokepoints would be under simultaneous pressure for the first time since 1973.
Led to
Houthis threaten second chokepoint
A third consecutive Houthi attack on Israel builds on the first two barrages of 28-30 March, establishing sustainable operational tempo.
Occurred 30 Mar 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
Cross-border power traders
Cross-border power traders
The France-Germany day-ahead spread flipped from a EUR 17.20 German premium on 1 August to a EUR 4.15 French premium on 3 August, the same day French curtailment peaked. They cannot yet attribute the flip to curtailment alone, since a like-for-like overnight comparison shows French nuclear output rising while wind fell and demand returned on the weekday step.
EDF
EDF
River-cooling limits took 7.6 GW, 12 per cent of its fleet, offline on 3 August, the highest curtailment since the heatwave began, with an easing forecast to 4.3 GW on 4 August and 3 GW after. It manages the cut as a recurring seasonal constraint, expecting it to lift with river temperature, not repair.
Gasunie
Gasunie
TTF, the Dutch hub it operates, drifted to roughly EUR 55 to 58 per MWh across the window, staying inside its recent range through both the German spark reversal and the French curtailment. It reads a flat hub price as evidence that neither event this window carried enough weight to move the fuel leg on its own.
German gas-fired generators
German gas-fired generators
Record German solar of 18,761 MW on 2 August pushed the clean spark spread to minus 18.48 EUR/MWh, a loss-making day, before it returned to plus 16.20 on 3 August. They now price dispatch against post-solar residual load rather than wind alone, since the sign flipped inside 48 hours on unchanged fuel and carbon costs.
European Commission (DG Energy)
European Commission (DG Energy)
Its implementing-measures register logged transposition notices from only Portugal and Slovakia against Wednesday's Article 94 deadline for Directive (EU) 2024/1788, with 25 states silent. It expects the register to fill only gradually, since filing routinely lags legislating and any infringement track against non-notifying states runs on a slower clock than the deadline itself.
Spain's LNG terminal operators
Spain's LNG terminal operators
Spain's 9,145 GWh terminal inventory is the largest single stock in the EU LNG network, an option value that can reroute cargoes wherever the winter strip pays best rather than a cavern gas obligation tied to a fixed date. That flexibility matters more as Germany's cavern shortfall pushes more of the winter security question onto import infrastructure.