29MAY

Trump signs Graham Russia sanctions law

3 min read

09:05UTC

Trump signed the Graham Act on 18 September, starting a 30-day clock on tariffs of up to 100% against the biggest buyers of Russian crude and gas.

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EconomicAssessed

Key takeaway

The Graham Act puts tariffs on Russia's oil buyers on a fixed clock unless Trump certifies a waiver.

Donald Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 into law on 18 September⁠¹. It carries the name of the Republican senator who died in July. The House of Representatives passed it 262-159 on 16 September, after an 86-11 Senate vote in August.

Within 30 days of enactment the Act requires duties of up to 100% on goods from the five largest importers of Russian crude or gas that keep buying, and from the five largest facilitators of oil-sanctions evasion. By that clock the tariffs fall due around 18 October. The president may waive them only after a written national-interest certification and a report to Congress, and none has been made public.

India sits squarely in range. Its Ministry of External Affairs said after The House vote that New Delhi would "take all necessary measures" to protect its trade⁠². American Bazaar reported that Russia supplied 30.3% of India's crude imports in the last fiscal year. In July the US Treasury had quietly removed Turkish and Indian names from its Russia sanctions list.

The diesel licence Washington issued three weeks after signing did not use the Act's waiver. The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) granted it under its older Russia regulations, so the certification Congress wrote into the law has not yet been tested.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Congress passed a law to punish countries that keep buying Russian oil and gas. President Trump signed it on 18 September. The law tells the president to put import taxes, called tariffs, of up to 100% on goods from the biggest buyers, such as India and China. The aim is to make buying Russian energy so costly that Russia earns less to pay for the war. The president can skip the tariffs if he tells Congress in writing that doing so is in America's interest. The deadline falls around 18 October.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

Russian oil now moves mostly to Asian buyers on ships Western sanctions cannot reach directly. In August, 150 shadow tankers carried 52% of Russia's seaborne oil . Sanctions on the ships themselves leak, so Congress aimed at the buyers' own exports to the US.

The Act also answers a gap in executive policy. The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) let the crude waiver lapse in June and named no successor , leaving Russia's crude trade outside any formal US framework. A statute with a deadline forces a decision that an expired licence does not.

What could happen next?

Risk
Tariffs on India and China would open a trade dispute with Asia's two largest economies in the same month Washington eased Russian diesel.
Short term · Reported
Consequence
A certified waiver would create the first written public account of how the White House weighs Russian oil revenue against trade relations.
Short term · Reported
Precedent
Congress has written a deadline into Russia energy policy, so future relief needs a paper trail to Capitol Hill.
Long term · Assessed

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Primary parallel: In August 2025 Washington added a 25% tariff on Indian goods as a penalty for buying Russian oil, taking the total duty to 50% from 27 August. New Delhi called the move unjustified, and the tariff became a bargaining item in trade talks rather than a switch that cut purchases at once.

Counter-parallel: The 2017 Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act also mandated penalties on buyers of Russian goods, in that case arms. Washington sanctioned Turkey's defence procurement agency in December 2020 over its S-400 purchase but never sanctioned India for the same system, so the statute bit only where the president chose.

Immediate exposure: Russia supplied 30.3% of India's crude imports in fiscal 2026, worth $40.8bn, according to American Bazaar. Al Jazeera put China's share of Russian crude exports at about half and India's at 37%.

Structural exposure: the Act also allows duties of up to 500% on Russian imports into the US, with statutory exceptions. Direct US imports from Russia are small, so the weight of the law falls on third-country exporters to the US rather than on Russian sellers.

Consensus view: Al Jazeera's reading of the text on 17 September stressed that the Act lets the president tariff the top buyers at up to 100% but triggers nothing automatically. The Kyiv Independent's summary makes the same point from the other end: the waiver needs only a written national-interest certification and a report to Congress, so the law shifts the burden of explanation rather than removing presidential discretion.

Counter-view: India's Ministry of External Affairs answered The House vote by saying New Delhi stays "firmly committed" to energy security on market terms and will "take all necessary measures" to protect its trade. Its argument is about mechanism: India treats Russian barrels as a price hedge, and a tariff on its goods punishes its exporters without changing what its refiners pay.

Key tension: Whether a White House that licensed Russian diesel on 9 October will tariff New Delhi and Beijing for buying Russian crude nine days later.

First Reported In

Update #28 · US licenses Russian diesel and turns on Kyiv

The Kyiv Independent· 12 Oct 2026

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Causes and effects

This Event

Trump signs Graham Russia sanctions law

The Act sets a statutory deadline for secondary tariffs that only a certified, reported waiver can lift.

Led to

Trump waives Graham Act's Russia tariffs

The 16 October order implements the Graham Act Trump signed on 18 September.

Occurred 16 Oct 2026

Read story →

Different Perspectives

Cross-border power traders

The France-Germany day-ahead spread flipped from a EUR 17.20 German premium on 1 August to a EUR 4.15 French premium on 3 August, the same day French curtailment peaked. They cannot yet attribute the flip to curtailment alone, since a like-for-like overnight comparison shows French nuclear output rising while wind fell and demand returned on the weekday step.

EDF

River-cooling limits took 7.6 GW, 12 per cent of its fleet, offline on 3 August, the highest curtailment since the heatwave began, with an easing forecast to 4.3 GW on 4 August and 3 GW after. It manages the cut as a recurring seasonal constraint, expecting it to lift with river temperature, not repair.

Gasunie

TTF, the Dutch hub it operates, drifted to roughly EUR 55 to 58 per MWh across the window, staying inside its recent range through both the German spark reversal and the French curtailment. It reads a flat hub price as evidence that neither event this window carried enough weight to move the fuel leg on its own.

German gas-fired generators

Record German solar of 18,761 MW on 2 August pushed the clean spark spread to minus 18.48 EUR/MWh, a loss-making day, before it returned to plus 16.20 on 3 August. They now price dispatch against post-solar residual load rather than wind alone, since the sign flipped inside 48 hours on unchanged fuel and carbon costs.

European Commission (DG Energy)

Its implementing-measures register logged transposition notices from only Portugal and Slovakia against Wednesday's Article 94 deadline for Directive (EU) 2024/1788, with 25 states silent. It expects the register to fill only gradually, since filing routinely lags legislating and any infringement track against non-notifying states runs on a slower clock than the deadline itself.

Spain's LNG terminal operators

Spain's 9,145 GWh terminal inventory is the largest single stock in the EU LNG network, an option value that can reroute cargoes wherever the winter strip pays best rather than a cavern gas obligation tied to a fixed date. That flexibility matters more as Germany's cavern shortfall pushes more of the winter security question onto import infrastructure.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.