26OCT

Houthis threaten second chokepoint

1 min read

15:07UTC

Three days of sustained attacks on Israel establish that Ansar Allah can maintain tempo. The question is whether they close the strait.

← Back to China puts drone-part exports under licence Jump to analysis ↓

TechnologyDeveloping

Key takeaway

The Houthi front is calibrated escalation, not symbolic gestures.

Ansar Allah struck Israel for a third consecutive day on 30 March. All projectiles were intercepted. Deputy Information Minister Mohammed Mansour described Bab al-Mandeb closure as "among our options" in a staged escalation, contingent on Israeli or US ground movement.⁠¹

No formal blockade has been imposed. All vessels, including US- and Israeli-linked ships, continue to transit. But three days of attacks confirm sustainable operational tempo. Combined with near-total Hormuz closure, a formal Bab al-Mandeb blockade would place simultaneous pressure on the world's two most critical oil transit routes for the first time since the 1973 Oil Crisis. MARAD and UKMTO have already confirmed deliberate GNSS denial spanning both chokepoints.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The Houthis control much of northern Yemen and have been attacking ships in the Red Sea since 2024. They are also allied with Iran. For three days running, they have fired missiles and drones toward Israel; all were intercepted. Bab al-Mandeb is a narrow strait between Yemen and Djibouti. About 10% of all world trade and a large share of oil from the Gulf to Europe passes through it. If the Houthis block it, combined with Iran blocking the strait of Hormuz, two of the world's main oil routes would be shut simultaneously. That last happened in 1973 during the Arab Oil Embargo. It triggered a global recession. The Houthis have not closed Bab al-Mandeb yet, but their deputy minister said it is an option.

Sources:Al Jazeera

Mentions:UKMTO →Strait of Hormuz →Mohammed Mansour →Bab al-Mandeb →Houthis →Red Sea →1973 Arab Oil Embargo →

First Reported In

Update #53 · Trump drops Hormuz goal; toll becomes law

Al Jazeera· 31 Mar 2026

Read original →

Causes and effects

Caused by

Houthis strike Israel for third day

A third consecutive Houthi attack on Israel builds on the first two barrages of 28-30 March, establishing sustainable operational tempo.

Occurred 30 Mar 2026

Read story →

GPS blacked out across Gulf chokepoints

GNSS denial across both chokepoints supports the coordinated Houthi-Iran electronic warfare enabling the sustained missile campaign against Israel.

Occurred 29 Mar 2026

Read story →

This Event

Houthis threaten second chokepoint

A formal Bab al-Mandeb blockade combined with Hormuz closure would simultaneously shut the world's two most critical oil transit routes for the first time since 1973.

Different Perspectives

Nigerian Air Force

The air force listed 12 Turkish Aksungur and two Chinese CH-4D armed drones on 25 October. No contract has been published, so these are plans.

Civilians in Western Sahara

A UN report of October 2023 records allegations of Moroccan drone strikes east of the berm. An aerial strike there in November 2022 reportedly killed six civilians, the UN said, citing Polisario and local media.

Thunder Tiger

The Taichung company said on 16 October that all 1,520 of its Gauntlet I attack drones passed inspection. Its MoU with AeroVironment covers fitting Switchblade to its uncrewed boats and ground vehicles and exploring joint production in Taiwan.

EDGE Group

The Emirati group said on 9 October it will supply glide bombs and guidance kits for the Royal Moroccan Air Force's armed drones. A separate memorandum explores making small arms and aero engines in Morocco.

Rajnath Singh

India's Defence Acquisition Council, which he chairs, approved about Rs 2.12 lakh crore of proposals on 26 October, including kamikaze drones and tank-mounted counter-drone systems. About 82 per cent of the value is to go to Indian industry, by the ministry's account.

Kongsberg

The Norwegian group said on 13 October it will invest more than 200m zlotys in a Pomeranian plant to build and maintain SAN counter-drone systems. It expects series output to begin in the first half of 2028.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.