Economists at the Banque de France reported on 8 October that permanent-contract hiring of 21-to-29-year-olds in the most AI-exposed fifth of occupations was about 28% below its November 2022 level by March 2026, against 8% in the least exposed fifth12. Exposure here means how readily generative AI tools can perform an occupation's tasks. At the start of 2026, hiring of young software developers and IT (information technology) engineers was 42% below November 2022, against 11% in less exposed occupations3. The gap narrows for workers in their thirties and forties and nearly vanishes from 50.
The study, published on the Bank's blog under the authors' own names, counts declared CDI (contrat à durée indéterminée, France's open-ended employment contract) hires and terminations at about 6,000 firms in the Bank's business survey from January 2019, matched to an occupational exposure index for generative AI. November 2022, the base month, is when ChatGPT launched.
The Bank of Canada found the same shape in August, a job-finding gap that widened while dismissals barely moved. France finds it in declared hires at surveyed firms rather than a household survey. One difference: terminations of young exposed workers fell too, by 23% against 6%4. Fewer under-30s in exposed jobs are hired, and fewer are let go, than in 2022; that matters because moving between jobs is usually how young workers win pay rises.
Danmarks Nationalbank reported in September that Danish firms adopting AI in 2023 had employment growth 11% lower than non-adopters two years on5. A euro-area survey found AI use concentrated among graduates.
The French authors name other explanations. The European Central Bank (ECB) raised rates from July 2022 to September 2023, inside the same window, and the most exposed occupations are also the easiest to do from home, so post-pandemic remote hiring could mimic the pattern. Neither obviously explains why the gap fades with age.
