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Cuba Dispatch
28MAY

Tourism falls 55.8% as the peso slides

2 min read
08:42UTC

Tourism arrivals fell to 30,883 in May, with the January-to-April total down 55.8% year on year, stripping out roughly half the foreign currency tourism feeds Cuba. The reform bets private capital can rebuild a hard-currency base the sanctions are gutting.

PoliticsDeveloping
Key takeaway

Tourism fell 55.8% as the reform passed, gutting the hard-currency base it bets on rebuilding.

Tourism arrivals to Cuba fell to 30,883 in May, with the January-to-April total down 55.8% year on year 1. That is enough of a fall to strip out roughly half the foreign currency that tourism feeds into the economy. Tourism is, with diaspora remittances, one of Cuba's two main hard-currency sources, and the reform's foreign-investment pillar targets exactly this gap.

The hotel exodus deepens it. The Spanish chains Melia and Iberostar, which ran GAESA-linked properties, have walked rather than risk US blacklisting , , removing both the rooms and the marketing that fills them. Each chain that exits takes a slice of inbound dollars with it, so the 55.8% arrivals fall understates the foreign-exchange loss: the rooms that close are the ones that earned in dollars rather than pesos.

GAESA sanctions drive a self-reinforcing loop: they push the hotel chains out; fewer tourists supply less foreign exchange; the dollar shortage that has already driven the peso to record lows widens; inflation and shortages deepen; protests and repression follow . The reform's foreign-investment pillar is meant to break that loop by attracting private capital from abroad. The sanctions cut against it at the same node: the lost tourism dollars are the largest single source of the hard currency the reform needs, and the same secondary-sanctions exposure that emptied the GAESA hotels deters the foreign investors the new rules invite. Havana legislated a hard-currency rebuild on the same days its hard-currency base was draining fastest.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Cuba depends on tourism for much of its foreign income, the dollars it needs to buy imported fuel, food and medicine. In May 2026, only 30,883 tourists visited the whole island, a catastrophic figure. For comparison, before the 2020 pandemic Cuba had over 4 million visitors a year. The collapse happened because major hotel chains left Cuba after US sanctions made it too risky to stay, and because international bank cards stopped working. At the same time, the Cuban peso lost most of its value. In January 2026 you could get about 411 pesos for one US dollar on the official market. By June the informal market rate was 670 pesos per dollar. Cuba's economy is being squeezed from both sides: less hard currency coming in from tourists, and each dollar buying more pesos as Cubans lose confidence in the currency. The reform package tries to address this, but the steps it takes need foreign investment and trade access that the US sanctions currently block.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Tourism's collapse from roughly 2.4 million arrivals in 2023 to a 2026 trajectory of below 500,000 has two compound drivers. First, the GAESA hotel exodus: Melia exited 15 of 34 hotels, Iberostar and Aston also departed, collectively removing the brand-name inventory that international tour operators require for package sales. Second, the Visa and Mastercard card-rail suspension made payment practically impossible for foreign visitors arriving with standard international cards.

The peso's slide from 411 per dollar in January 2026 to 670 in June represents a 63% depreciation in five months. CEPAL's 10.3% cumulative contraction projection covers 2025-2026. The 1990s Special Period, which this contraction is now compared to, saw GDP fall roughly 35% between 1989 and 1993, but that decline unfolded over four years. The 2025-2026 trajectory is compressing a similar structural collapse into roughly 18 months.

The reform's devaluation commitment (moving from official 555 toward informal 670) is the monetary acknowledgement of what the El Toque tracker has been documenting since June 2026: the peso has already lost most of its store-of-value function, and the official rate is a fiction that creates arbitrage opportunities for anyone with access to dollars.

First Reported In

Update #8 · Cuba opens its economy as the door slams

Washington Post· 19 Jun 2026
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Different Perspectives
Russia
Russia
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Observatorio Cubano de Derechos Humanos (OCDH)
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United States (Mike Waltz / OFAC)
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