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Cuba Dispatch
7MAY

Treasury carves Cuba out of Venezuela oil easing

3 min read
12:16UTC

A broad US authorisation on 18 March let Venezuelan crude flow to global markets again, but named Cuba alongside Russia and Iran in the exclusions.

PoliticsDeveloping
Key takeaway

Washington eased Venezuela sanctions for the world and tightened them against Havana in the same stroke.

On 18 March 2026 the US Treasury issued a broad authorisation permitting PDVSA (Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A., the Venezuelan state oil firm) to sell crude on world markets, including to US refiners, in response to Iran-war supply pressure 1. The licence carried an explicit carve-out: transactions involving Cuba, Russia, Iran, North Korea and certain Chinese entities remain prohibited.

The practical effect is a two-tier settlement of Venezuela policy. Most of the world regains access to PDVSA crude at a moment when Hormuz disruption has pushed refiners to scramble for non-Iranian supply. The Cuban state, historically PDVSA's single most politically-loaded customer, does not. Cuba is grouped with strategic adversaries rather than with ordinary sanctions targets, which is a structural categorisation rather than a tactical one.

The instruments involved are the Cuban Assets Control Regulations (CACR), the statutory framework Treasury administers through its Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), and the 1996 LIBERTAD Act underpinning them. GAESA (Grupo de Administración Empresarial S.A., the Cuban military's economic conglomerate) is the specific state actor blocked from buying. Payments under the general licence route to a US-controlled account with gold and cryptocurrency settlement prohibited, closing the workaround channels Havana has used in previous tight-fuel episodes. The carve-out is the policy decision around which the remainder of the Cuba dispatch is organised.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The US eased oil sanctions on Venezuela so most of the world could buy Venezuelan crude again. But it explicitly banned Cuba from that deal. Think of it as the US reopening a petrol station to everyone except one customer. Cuba used to depend on Venezuela for cheap oil to keep its power stations running. That supply is now cut off at the source. The lights that go out each evening in Havana are partly a direct consequence of this decision.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

GAESA's dominance of Cuban oil imports means any Venezuela-Cuba fuel channel routes through the Cuban military conglomerate. US sanctions logic since 2019 has targeted GAESA specifically, making it structurally impossible to allow Cuban state oil imports without benefiting the entity the sanctions most intend to pressure.

The timing reflects Iran war supply politics: the March 18 authorisation was driven by Hormuz disruption pushing US refiners to seek alternative supply. Cuba's exclusion was the political cost of selling the Venezuela easing to the Miami Republican delegation and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee hardliners.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Cuba's state thermal fleet is deprived of its most commercially-accessible emergency fuel source, extending the grid crisis beyond what Russian tanker cadence alone can offset.

    Short term · 0.85
  • Risk

    If Russia cannot sustain tanker deliveries at fortnightly intervals, Cuba faces rolling grid collapse rather than managed brownouts; with hospital and water-treatment consequences quantified by the UN.

    Medium term · 0.72
  • Precedent

    Grouping Cuba with Russia, Iran and North Korea in a statutory exclusion sets a categorisation that will be difficult to walk back without a formal sanctions redesignation.

    Long term · 0.8
First Reported In

Update #1 · Cuba carve-out survives Venezuela oil easing

Military.com· 15 Apr 2026
Read original
Different Perspectives
Russia
Russia
Moscow has sent Havana solidarity gestures, including birthday messages to Raúl Castro, but no tanker has reached Cuba since the Sovcomflot Universal diverted away in May, and none arrived this week either. Russia's backing remains rhetorical while the fuel gap CUPET's designation created stays unfilled from any state-to-state source.
Observatorio Cubano de Derechos Humanos (OCDH)
Observatorio Cubano de Derechos Humanos (OCDH)
The Madrid-based monitor published its half-year count of 1,949 repressive actions on 7 July, 299 in June, the highest monthly total it has logged in 2026, with independent journalists the most-targeted group. OCDH's figures moved the debate from sanctions cadence to security-state conduct in the same week Havana wanted the argument to stay on sanctions.
European Union (Stavros Lambrinidis)
European Union (Stavros Lambrinidis)
Lambrinidis told the UNGA the embargo harms ordinary Cubans, then criticised Havana's Ukraine-ceasefire vote and Russian military participation, announcing no new measures. The EU is managing two separate Cuba files, human rights and Cuba's Russia alignment, that have not yet merged into one policy with teeth.
United States (Mike Waltz / OFAC)
United States (Mike Waltz / OFAC)
Ambassador Mike Waltz held up photographs of named Cuban political prisoners, including Otero Alcántara, telling the delegation "this is not Havana", while OFAC issued no new Cuba designation between 1 and 9 July. Washington is running the prisoner-naming track and the sanctions track separately, and a re-charged Otero Alcántara would give the naming track a fresh case to press.
Cuban Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MINREX)
Cuban Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MINREX)
MINREX rebutted Mike Waltz's prisoner photographs at the UNGA debate, saying Cuba has nothing resembling the repression imagery Washington displayed, while giving no public account of Otero Alcántara's whereabouts. Havana's embargo case depends on external sanctions as the sole cause of harm, which a domestically caused grid failure and an unexplained disappearance both complicate.
Russia and China
Russia and China
Moscow and Beijing offered rhetorical solidarity but no relief. No Russian tanker has reached Cuba since the Sovcomflot Universal diverted on 26 May, and China has moved no substitute cargo, leaving Havana's fuel siege unbroken by its strategic partners.