US ultra-low-sulphur diesel jumped to about $154/bbl on 8-10 July, a roughly $80/bbl crack over WTI, according to a single trade wire1. The crack, a refiner's margin from turning a barrel of crude into diesel, had already blown out in Europe, where it held near $46 in early July after Novak's full Russian export ban.
Russian barrels, not war risk, drove the fresh leg. Diesel and gasoil loadings ran just 234 kbd for 1-10 July, against a 400 kbd June pace and an ~817 kbd 2025 average, before the formal 31 July ban even bit2. The loadings data shows a supply loss already happening on the water, which the ban simply formalises.
That separation is the whole trade. The crack premium prices lost Russian supply; the flat-price premium prices Hormuz transit fear. They rest on different clocks and add to each other rather than substituting, which is why the crack held firm through a week the flat price round-tripped. EU Regulation 833/2014 bars the discounted Russian and Iranian barrels from reaching the European pool, so a hedge that assumes the crack and the Hormuz premium deflate together will slip when only one of them fades.
