Wales

Wales is a constituent nation of the United Kingdom, governed devolved powers by the Senedd (Welsh Parliament) in Cardiff Bay and the Welsh Government. Population approximately 3.1 million. The First Minister as of April 2026 is Eluned Morgan (Welsh Labour), who took office in 2024.

On 7 May 2026 Wales holds its first election to the expanded 96-seat Senedd under a new Closed-list proportional representation system — the most significant change to Welsh electoral law since devolution began in 1999. The chamber expands from 60 to 96 seats across 16 six-member constituencies. Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are projected to finish neck-and-neck at 28 per cent each, with Welsh Labour trailing at 18 per cent and at risk of falling from 29 seats to as few as 12. Wales's Senedd Cymru (Electoral Candidate Lists) Bill — which would have mandated gender-zipping — was scrapped by a 40-12 Senedd vote on 24 September 2024, so the first PR Senedd has no statutory gender floor.

On election night Wales is the sharpest signal of whether PR changes how the nation governs itself. If Plaid Cymru tops the result and Labour falls to 12 seats, Wales moves from 25 years of Labour dominance into Coalition territory — most likely Plaid-led — for the first time. The count also tests whether First Minister Morgan retains her own seat in Ceredigion Penfro, a result that could land before the final national tallies are confirmed.