Scottish National Party (SNP)

The Scottish National Party has governed Scotland since 2007, first under Alex Salmond (who won an outright majority in 2011 and secured the 2014 independence referendum) and subsequently under Nicola Sturgeon and, since May 2023, John Swinney. An Electoral Calculus MRP published on 7 April 2026 — with fieldwork across 4,105 respondents — projects the SNP to win 67 Holyrood seats, two above the 65-seat majority threshold. This would be the first SNP outright majority since Salmond's historic 2011 victory. Swinney has stated explicitly that a majority would constitute a fresh mandate for a second Scottish independence referendum.

The Scottish Parliament dissolved at 23:59 on 8 April 2026, formally entering regulated short-campaign status on 9 April. Pre-election Purdah for civil servants had been in effect since 26 March. The election is the first under newly redrawn constituency and regional boundaries approved in October 2025. A record 39 retiring MSPs — the highest in Holyrood history — stand down, with the SNP projected to win all its 67 seats from constituency contests alone, taking zero regional list seats under the Additional Member System. The IFS scrutiny of opposition manifestos, which found both the Conservative and Reform UK Scottish plans fiscally incoherent, has indirectly strengthened the SNP's incumbency advantage.

A confirmed SNP majority on 7 May would immediately reopen the constitutional question that has defined Scottish politics since 2014: the timing and legality of a second independence referendum. With Swinney explicitly framing a majority as a mandate, readers tracking Scotland's relationship with the rest of the UK need to treat the SNP's final seat count as the hinge on which the next chapter of the independence debate turns.