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Sanam Vakil
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Sanam Vakil

Chatham House MENA director; analyst of Iranian politics, JCPOA, and the 2026 conflict.

On 12 April, Sanam Vakil was identified as Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa director during the Iran conflict. Her work centres on Iranian politics, Gulf security and the JCPOA nuclear agreement.

Last refreshed: 22 September 2026 · Appears in 1 active topic

Key Question

She called the IRGC coup before anyone else: who is Chatham House's Sanam Vakil?

Timeline for Sanam Vakil

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Background

Sanam Vakil is a political analyst and Director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House. Her work focuses on Iranian domestic politics, Gulf security and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the 2015 nuclear agreement commonly known as the JCPOA.

That specialism places Iranian decision-making, regional security and nuclear diplomacy in the same frame. These subjects remain relevant beyond a single diplomatic round or military episode because each shapes how Iran engages neighbouring states and external powers.

Vakil was named as Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa director in coverage published on 12 April. Her public role is to interpret developments in Iran and the wider region for policy and public audiences.

Common Questions
Who is Sanam Vakil?
Director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House. A British-Iranian political scientist and the most prominent Independent analyst on Iran's 2026 conflict, succession crisis, and nuclear negotiations.Source: Chatham House
What did Sanam Vakil say about Iran's Supreme Leader?
Vakil warned early that The Supreme Leader's seat could remain empty despite official claims, and argued the IRGC, not the civilian government, controls Iran's wartime decision-making — a position now widely accepted.Source: Chatham House
What is Chatham House's position on Iran?
Chatham House, through Sanam Vakil's MENA programme, has provided consistent analysis that the IRGC holds operational control over Iran's war, challenged the UK's legal basis for base access, and tracked the Islamabad and Antalya diplomatic processes.Source: Chatham House
Why is Sanam Vakil the most quoted analyst on Iran?
Vakil combines academic expertise (PhD from SAIS Johns Hopkins, publications on Iran-GCC relations and JCPOA) with the institutional credibility of Chatham House's MENA directorship, making her the go-to voice for broadcasters and parliamentary committees.
Why does Sanam Vakil say the IRGC, not Iran's president, controls the war?
Vakil argues that Iran's wartime command structure bypasses the civilian presidency. Pezeshkian's contradictory public statements reflected a fractured chain of command, and Mojtaba Khamenei's first named directives via IRIB in 2026 confirmed that effective authority rests with the IRGC and The Supreme Leader's circle, not the elected government.Source: Chatham House
Source Material
Sanam Vakil - Chatham House