TX-35

TX-35 is Texas's 35th congressional district, running along the Interstate 35 corridor between San Antonio and Austin. The district was redrawn under the PlanC2333 map enacted by the Texas Legislature, reshaping its constituency in ways that redistricting forecasters have assessed as favouring Republicans. As of 27 May 2026, both Sabato's Crystal Ball and Cook Political Report moved the district from Likely Republican to Leans Republican, citing split-ticket vulnerability: Donald Trump carried TX-35 by ten points in 2024, but Ted Cruz won the same territory by under four points in the Senate race, indicating a meaningful bloc of voters who split their tickets and could swing in a wave environment.

The district occupies a competitive tier that has historically been contested as Texas's urban corridor grows. The PlanC2333 redrawing was designed to extend Republican advantage across the San Antonio-Austin axis, but the modest Trump-to-Cruz spread in 2024 exposed the map's limits in a district that straddles two major Democratic-leaning cities. Forecasters note that the House map overall is marginally redder than prior cycles, but not by a margin sufficient to protect Republicans against a significant Democratic wave.

In the 2026 context, TX-35's rating shift is part of a broader pattern: both major forecasters made simultaneous moves on the Texas Senate race and this district on the same day, signalling coordinated re-assessment of Republican exposure in Texas. The district is a bellwether for whether the Trump Coalition can hold its margins in suburban Texas under an adverse national environment.