Nuclear Enrichment Programme

Iran's nuclear enrichment programme survived the 2025-26 US-Israeli air campaign in its most consequential dimension: the fissile stockpile. The IAEA confirmed Iran held 440.9 kg of uranium enriched to 60% U-235 in pre-strike inspection records. That stockpile, if further enriched to weapons-grade 90%, is sufficient for approximately seven nuclear devices. Inspectors have detected movement near stockpile sites but have had no access to enriched uranium inventories for over eight months. IAEA Director General Grossi concluded that military action cannot eliminate the programme: "the material will still be there and the enrichment capacities will be there."

Iran operates four known enrichment facilities: Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan (newly disclosed March 2026), and a fourth whose status is unverified. US and Israeli strikes hit Natanz twice, Fordow, and Isfahan using GBU-72 Advanced 5K Penetrators. Netanyahu claimed Iran "no longer has the capacity to enrich uranium" but provided no supporting evidence; the IAEA did not corroborate the claim.

A bill to withdraw Iran from the Non-Proliferation Treaty was filed in Parliament as priority legislation in late March 2026. If passed, all remaining JCPOA restrictions would lapse. Iran's breakout timeline to a first device, absent further strikes, is estimated by Western intelligence at weeks rather than months.