Kyle Kondik
Managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
As managing editor, Kyle Kondik oversaw a 14 October 2026 Crystal Ball update that put Kansas, Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Texas, all Republican-held, in the Senate Toss Up column, a tilt that fits his view that midterms punish the president's party.
Last refreshed: 18 October 2026
Timeline for Kyle Kondik
Mentioned in: Cook and Sabato moves run to Democrats
US Midterms 2026Mentioned in: Two Dan Sullivans, one Alaska toss-up
US Midterms 2026Mentioned in: Letlow routs Fleming by 13.6 points
US Midterms 2026Mentioned in: NJ-7 moves to Toss-up as cash gap holds
US Midterms 2026Mentioned in: Texas Senate, TX-35 both slip to Leans Republican
US Midterms 2026Background
Kyle Kondik is managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, whose race ratings are followed alongside Cook Political Report through the 2026 midterms. In October 2026 the newsletter he edits rated no Democratic-held Senate seat a Toss Up.
Kondik joined the University of Virginia Center for Politics in 2011 and is also its communications director. He has written two books: The Bellwether, on Ohio's presidential voting, and The Long Red Thread, on Republican strength in the US House. He is often quoted on candidate quality and late spending, as when he argued that Julia Letlow's wide June 2026 runoff win in Louisiana reflected a real swing driven by a late advertising surge.
His writing frames the forecaster's starting point: midterms usually punish the president's party. The Crystal Ball's September House moves, all towards Democrats, ran the same way.
Kondik's midterm rule shapes the ratings
Kondik has written that midterms usually punish the president's party, and the Crystal Ball's ratings start from that base. Under his editing, Republicans held every seat in the newsletter's Senate Toss Up column by mid-October 2026. Late moves that all point one way fit the pattern of 2006 and 2018, when the out-party's lead widened in October.
The rule also shapes how the Crystal Ball handles uncertainty. In April it moved Virginia House seats towards Democrats on the assumption that the state's redistricting referendum would survive a court block, and Kondik treated such conditional ratings as standard practice. The risk runs the other way too: in autumn 2022 forecasters drifted towards Republicans and overshot.
Who is Kyle Kondik?
Why do midterms usually go against the president's party?
Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Updated 18 October 2026. Editorial standards.