Sabato's Crystal Ball moved three Senate, four governor and three House races towards Democrats on 22 September, citing "a persistently poor national environment for Republicans"1. Cook Political Report moved three Senate races a step towards Democrats a day later but left its seven core Toss Ups untouched2. Cook puts Democratic net gains anywhere from one seat to five, against the four they need for control. It had changed nothing in its 11 September House snapshot.
Kansas moved from Likely to Lean Republican at both raters. Sabato cited an Emerson poll with Democrat Hamilton ahead of Senator Roger Marshall 45-43. In South Carolina, Cook moved the special Senate election from Solid to Likely Republican, its first change since Darline Graham Nordone won the August runoff; she faces Democrat Annie Andrews. Both seats are held by Republicans, so each move widens the map Democrats can contest without touching Cook's core Toss Ups.
Among governors, Sabato moved Florida's open seat, which it had already shifted in July, and Greg Abbott's Texas from Likely to Leans Republican. Ohio, where Vivek Ramaswamy faces Amy Acton, and Joe Lombardo's Nevada each dropped a step, to Toss-up. The Ohio move lands in the state where Republican party and super PAC money for the Senate race has been heaviest.
In the House, Sabato moved Florida's 27th District from Likely to Leans Republican and added Texas's 9th District, a majority-Latino seat Trump carried by 20 points, at Likely Republican. It had not previously rated the Texas seat at all.
