A Survation poll taken 18 to 22 May puts Andy Burnham on 43% in the Makerfield by-election against Reform's Robert Kenyon on 40%, with Restore Britain's Rebecca Shepherd on 7% 1. Polling closes on Thursday 18 June. The 7% is the figure that matters: Restore Britain, fielding candidates to Reform's right, polls around 4% nationally , so it is running hot in exactly the seat where a few points decide everything.
Under first-past-the-post (FPTP, where the single highest vote takes the seat), a fractured right normally hands victory to the left, because splitting a bloc across two candidates wastes its votes. That arithmetic is now working against Reform. If most of Restore Britain's share would otherwise back Kenyon, it converts a Reform near-miss into a Burnham win. The historic right-of-Conservative splinters, UKIP and the BNP, let Labour hold marginal seats by the same mechanic.
Survation also measured the candidate himself: on a generic ballot with no names, Reform leads Labour by 11 points in Makerfield, but attach the names and Burnham leads by 3 2. That 14-point swing is the personal vote a sitting metro mayor brings, and it is doing as much work in this seat as the right-wing split.
Burnham needs this seat to re-enter Parliament, and the seat is the gateway to any challenge for the Labour leadership. Labour's National Executive Committee (NEC, the party's governing body) waved him through and the parliamentary party split 159 to 97 in the last count of nerve . A by-election in Greater Manchester, decided by a third party polling 7%, could set the terms of who eventually leads the governing party.
