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Welsh leaders debates expose immigration paradox

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ITV Cymru Wales hosted the first Senedd leaders debate on Sunday 19 April; S4C and BBC Radio Cymru aired Y Ddadl Fawr on Thursday 23 April; the BBC One Wales debate is scheduled for Tuesday 28 April. Immigration dominated the ITV debate despite the Senedd having no powers over it.

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Key takeaway

The Welsh debates centre on immigration, an issue the Senedd cannot legislate on.

ITV Cymru Wales hosted "Wales Decides 2026" on Sunday 19 April with all six party leaders, presented by Adrian Masters ¹. The most heated exchange came on immigration: Reform and the Conservatives were accused of "stoking divisive rhetoric". Reform Wales's Dan Thomas defended the position as "voicing the genuine concerns that the general public have in Wales". Welsh Labour First Minister Eluned Morgan interjected on Reform's claim of £40m in NHS savings: "that wouldn't pay for the NHS for half a day".

S4C and BBC Radio Cymru aired "Y Ddadl Fawr" on Thursday 23 April, presented by Bethan Rhys Roberts. The third Welsh debate, on BBC One Wales also presented by Rhys Roberts, is scheduled for Tuesday 28 April from a Cardiff studio audience. The Senedd has no immigration powers, which are reserved to Westminster, but the issue dominated the first televised exchange and is expected to recur. The Welsh ballot under the new closed-list system translates national vote share directly into Senedd seats, which makes each televised exchange a direct input into the seat allocation that the post-debate polling will register.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Wales is about to elect a new Senedd (the Welsh Parliament) on 7 May. Before the election, all the major party leaders take part in televised debates , similar to the UK general election debates, but for Welsh politics. ITV Cymru Wales (the Welsh ITV channel) hosted the first debate on 19 April, with all six party leaders. S4C, the Welsh-language TV channel, and BBC Radio Cymru broadcast a second debate, 'Y Ddadl Fawr' (which means 'The Big Debate' in Welsh), on 23 April. A third debate on BBC One Wales is scheduled for 28 April, one week before polling day. Much of the first debate focused on immigration, despite the Senedd holding no power over it; immigration policy is set by the UK Parliament at Westminster. Reform UK's Dan Thomas argued the public cares about it regardless. First Minister Eluned Morgan (Welsh Labour) challenged Reform's claim that £40 million in NHS savings would be possible, saying it would not cover the Welsh NHS for half a day. These debates matter because polling projects that Welsh Labour, which has governed Wales since 1999, could fall from 29 to as few as 12 Senedd seats {{EVREF:/t/uk-elections-2026/3/wales-greens-projected-as-senedd-kingmakers/}}. Many voters are encountering the new parties and the new voting system for the first time.

Sources:ITV Cymru Wales

Mentions:ITV News Wales →S4C →BBC Radio Cymru →Eluned Morgan →Tinopolis →BBC One Wales →Parliament →Wales →Welsh Labour →Senedd →Reform UK →Westminster →Dan Thomas →Adrian Masters →Bethan Rhys Roberts →

First Reported In

Update #5 · 11 Days to Go: Six-of-six, RPA dies, Welsh lead flips

ITV Cymru Wales· 26 Apr 2026

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Causes and effects

This Event

Welsh leaders debates expose immigration paradox

The strongest Reform mobilisation issue runs through a chamber that cannot legislate on it, putting the Welsh debates at the centre of a campaign whose pivot issue is reserved to Westminster.

Led to

Welsh Labour at 12%, lowest since 1906

The BBC Wales debate scheduled in ID:2805 occurred on 28 April and produced the Farage minus 18 and ap Iorwerth plus 10 net ratings reported here

Occurred 28 Apr 2026

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Different Perspectives

Scottish Labour members

Scottish Labour's published leadership nominations show 33 MPs and MSPs backing Michael Marra against 12 for Joe Fagan, with members voting until 17 September and a result on 19 September. Elected members do not cast the ballot, so the nomination gap measures the parliamentary party rather than the membership that will decide it.

Electoral Commission

The Electoral Commission published its Q2 2026 donations register on 3 September, recording Reform UK's £5.44m as the highest of any party and Ben Delo's £4m as two cash gifts. The register records a donation's form and amount, not the origin of a donor's wealth, so a cash gift shows the same as any other.

Reform UK

Danny Kruger, Reform UK's MP for East Wiltshire, called the Bill "a flagrantly partisan attempt to kneecap Reform UK" during the 2 September debate, objecting to its trade-union exemption. Reform enters its Birmingham conference having topped Q2's donor register at £5.44m, £4m of it in cash from Ben Delo, a form the new ban does not reach.

Ian Davidson, Acting Returning Officer for Clacton

Davidson's office printed a 90cm ballot paper for the record 34-candidate field, with nothing in electoral law capping candidate numbers or the £500 deposit each pays. He expects the paper's size to raise printing costs and slow the count into the early hours, a strain that follows from the major parties' boycott, not from turnout.

Labour Party

Labour gained Penistone East from Reform on 20 August but lost Harraby South to Reform the same night, a wash that undercuts any claim of momentum. The party can point to beating Reform in a genuinely fought contest, but not to a pattern running only in its favour.

Liberal Democrats

The Liberal Democrats took two of Reform's May wards, Almondbury on 13 August and St Neots Eynesbury on 20 August, the latter on a 29.8-point rise in their own vote share. Both results let the party claim it is the beneficiary when voters turn against Reform, not Labour or the Conservatives.