TTF front-month climbed from 44.13 EUR/MWh on Monday 6 July to 46.58, 49.02 and 50.10 by Thursday 9 July, a four-session gain of roughly 13%, before easing to 49.99 on Friday 10 July12. The benchmark last held above €50 before the 17 June slide, when it settled 41.12 on ban-binding day and never snapped back.
That earlier €50 was a diplomacy premium on Iran-Israel escalation risk to Gulf tanker routes, and it drained in a single session once the US-Iran memorandum was signed, after the prompt had already broken its €46 floor selling into the ban on 15 June. This €50 rests on withdrawn cargo instead: QatarEnergy has removed expected volume, so the move lacks the diplomatic off-ramp that emptied the June ceiling.
The Friday flattening deserves honest weight. One carrier was hit, not the Ras Laffan terminal itself, and a sceptical desk will file this alongside the 1 July tanker-headline pop that faded within a session. The counter is concrete: a headline reprices sentiment, but al-Kaabi's ramp-halt and the force majeure running to August pull real volume from the forward curve. A floor built on withdrawn cargo holds better than one built on risk sentiment, though neither proves the level survives an escort convoy re-forming.
