TTF ran a full round-trip in four sessions. The European benchmark gas price touched roughly €43.6/MWh on 27 June, a two-week high on fears a Gulf strike would choke tanker traffic, then fell to €40.6 on 29 June, a two-month low, once the verbal US-Iran stand-down pulled the risk premium back out1. By 30 June it had snapped back to €43.62, up 7.6% intraday, as heat returned and Gulf risk re-bid.
TTF, the Title Transfer Facility, is the Dutch hub price every European gas contract references, and it has spent the season taking its cue from Hormuz headlines rather than from any shift in the physical balance. Across 27 to 30 June, tanker-traffic fear, the stand-down, then a fresh re-escalation moved the front month nearly €3 in either direction while storage filled steadily underneath2.
For all that motion, the quarter closed lower. TTF fell more than 5% across June and more than 14% over the quarter3. The same stand-down lifted Brent only 1.3%, to $72.91, the oil benchmark reading the Gulf far more calmly than the gas one. Crude barely moved while European gas ran from its two-month low back to its prior level inside a week, and that gap puts Hormuz risk into gas before it touches oil in the current supply environment.
