Skip to content
Welcome, thoughtbot's Giant Robots listeners!Start here
Russia-Ukraine War 2026
12OCT

Saudi tankers moved, Hormuz stayed shut

2 min read
10:59UTC

Three Saudi VLCCs reactivated their transponders and positioned roughly 10 million barrels near Hormuz on 19 June, the first such movement since the war began, yet zero eastbound transits completed.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Three Saudi tankers probed Hormuz with 10 million barrels, but zero transits completed and Brent held near $80.

Three Saudi-owned very large crude carriers (VLCCs), the largest class of oil tanker, reactivated their AIS transponders in the Gulf of Oman on 19 June and moved or positioned roughly 10 million barrels near the Strait of Hormuz, the first Saudi tanker movement since the conflict began⁠1. AIS is the automatic tracking signal ships switch off to hide and on to be seen, so reactivating it is itself a public gesture. the strait still did not reopen.

The Lloyd's Market Association (LMA), the body that represents Lloyd's syndicates, said safety rather than insurance availability was suppressing traffic⁠2. The navigable channel remains uncleared, no minesweeping has been reported, and tracking data showed zero completed eastbound transits by Saturday 20 June. The movement reads as Gulf producers testing the water commercially, not as barrels flowing: the carriers approached a strait that has logged no foreign-flag transit since the war shut it, even after CENTCOM ended its blockade enforcement on 18 June.

Brent Crude, the global oil benchmark, held near $80 a barrel, little changed from its $78.66 close on 18 June, as the market priced the repositioning as a signal rather than a supply unlock⁠3. Roughly a fifth of seaborne oil normally passes through Hormuz, so a price that barely moved on the first tanker movement in months is the market saying the same thing the LMA did: until the mines are cleared, the barrels stay stranded in the Gulf of Oman.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Very large crude carriers, known as VLCCs, are among the largest ships in the world, each carrying around two million barrels of oil. Three Saudi-owned VLCCs switched on their tracking transponders and moved near the strait of Hormuz on 19 June, the first time Saudi tankers have moved toward the strait since fighting began. This looked like progress, but the ships did not actually pass through the strait. The Lloyd's Market Association, which represents British insurers who set shipping industry standards, said the problem is not insurance, which the Lloyd's consortium now offers, but physical safety: the channel has not been swept for mines, and nobody has officially declared it safe. Riyadh sends roughly 9-10 million barrels a day through Hormuz in normal times, giving Saudi Arabia as much to lose from a closed strait as any country. Moving three VLCCs into position on 19 June signals that Saudi planners expect the channel to open soon. Three VLCCs switched on their transponders and moved into position; none had passed through the strait by 20 June.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The VLCC repositioning reflects Saudi calculation that the political conditions for Hormuz reopening have advanced enough to justify moving assets into position, even before the physical channel is cleared. CENTCOM ended its 66-day blockade on 18 June; the Saudi decision to reactivate AIS the following day is a deliberate signal to markets that Riyadh expects commercial traffic to follow.

The divergence between the financial opening (blockade lifted, Lloyd's consortium launched, CENTCOM enforcement ended) and the physical closure (mines uncleared, zero transits, LMA safety warning) reflects the lag between political decisions and operational reality that has characterised the entire Hormuz closure. Floating mines require a minimum 40-50 days to sweep at standard naval minesweeping rates; a full channel clearance extends to six months.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Saudi Arabia repositioning three VLCCs near Hormuz on the day after the blockade lift signals Riyadh's expectation of a near-term transit window; if that expectation proves wrong, Saudi pressure on the US for a faster safety resolution will intensify.

  • Risk

    The LMA's confirmation that zero eastbound transits completed by 20 June means the Brent price near $80 incorporates a supply-resumption premium that has no physical cargo behind it, reprising the gap that opened on 18 June (ID:4310).

First Reported In

Update #133 · Lebanon froze the Iran deal

CNBC· 20 Jun 2026
Read original →
Different Perspectives
Government of Latvia
Government of Latvia
Latvia abstained on 22 September when the EU renewed its individual sanctions for 36 months at the price of delisting Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman, and promised national sanctions of its own. Riga's abstention marks how far a frontline member state will go to keep listed names listed.
India's Ministry of External Affairs
India's Ministry of External Affairs
After the House passed the Graham bill on 16 September, India's foreign ministry said it would keep buying energy on market terms and protect its trade. Russia supplied 30.3% of India's crude imports in fiscal 2026, so the tariff decision due around 18 October falls directly on New Delhi.
Kaja Kallas, EU foreign policy chief
Kaja Kallas, EU foreign policy chief
Kallas answered the US licence on 10 October by saying Europe would not ease pressure, and EU ministers adopted a 22nd package of nearly 1,600 listings two days later. Brussels is tightening as Washington loosens, though TASS reported the package adds no significant new trade restrictions.
Donald Trump and the US Treasury
Donald Trump and the US Treasury
The Treasury licensed Russian diesel imports until 7 April 2027 on the day of Trump's call with Putin, and Trump then told reporters Ukraine should find a new leader. Washington is trading sanctions relief for fuel supply while pressing Kyiv to halt the refinery strikes behind the shortage.
Kremlin and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak
Kremlin and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak
After the 9 October call the Kremlin said Russia was ready to supply oil and petroleum products to American and global markets, and Novak brought forward the end of diesel export curbs. Moscow is selling the shortage back as goodwill, with volumes that Decree No. 686 now hides from outside checks.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
Zelenskyy called GL 135 an investment in prolonging the war and offered to stop striking Russian refineries if Russia stops destroying Ukraine's energy system. Answering Trump's call for a new leader, he set a total 60-day ceasefire as the condition for elections, which puts the next move on Moscow.