A Meduza investigation published on 24 June, in Russian and not carried by Western wires, reported that Russia is using financial leverage over the Belarusian economy to press Alexander Lukashenko toward a deeper role in the war1. The pressure runs through Moscow's ambassador in Minsk, Boris Gryzlov, and the reported demands include expanded strikes on Ukraine, tying down Ukrainian forces, and even operations against neighbouring members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), the Western military alliance2.
The counter-pressure lands days after Kyiv pulled Lukashenko the other way, setting a deadline for the drone relays on Belarusian soil to go dark. Russia and Belarus are bound by the Union State, a 1999 treaty integrating their economies and militaries that gives Moscow standing to ask. Vladimir Putin met Lukashenko on 26 June, which several news agencies read as crisis diplomacy; the Kremlin's own published calendar places the meeting on the sidelines of a pre-scheduled forum of Russian and Belarusian regions, not an emergency summons3. Moscow called Zelenskyy's ultimatum "absolutely aggressive" and said nothing more4.
Lukashenko's survival since the 2020 crackdown on contested post-election protests has rested on Russian recognition, which limits how far he can tilt toward Kyiv. The relays still went dark. Volodymyr Fesenko, a Ukrainian political analyst, told Al Jazeera the shutdown was "a concession to Zelenskyy's ultimatum but not a public one", and that Ukraine "now acts from the position of power"5.
