Skip to content
Briefings are running a touch slower this week while we rebuild the foundations.See roadmap
Russia-Ukraine War 2026
13MAY

Five energy PDs signed; no Iran paper

3 min read
20:00UTC

Lowdown Bureau / Regulatory. Trump signed five domestic-energy instruments the day before the ceasefire expires, proving the signing machinery was available.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Five signed instruments in one day, none on Iran, settle the question of whether the machinery was operational.

Donald Trump signed five Presidential Determinations on Monday invoking the Defense Production Act to mobilise domestic energy supply: petroleum production, liquefied natural gas (LNG), natural gas, coal supply chains, and grid infrastructure. Presidential Determinations are formal executive instruments published in the Federal Register; they commit funds, authorise contracting, and carry statutory weight. Trump's signing of five Presidential Determinations in a single day is an unusually dense output, and no Iran-specific executive instrument was produced on the same day or any other day since the 28 February start of the war.

Strait of Hormuz disruption is the Iran-driven condition these instruments respond to. Monday's traffic collapse has tightened American LNG and petroleum routing across the Pacific and Atlantic. The five PDs address that disruption by pointing the Defense Production Act inward at US supply chains rather than outward at the cause. The Defense Production Act machinery exists to address foreign-origin threats to American industrial capacity; the instruments signed this week use it for domestic mobilisation without naming Iran, the war, or the strait.

The 51-day instrument gap has, by this point in the war, acquired its own evidence. Josh Hawley is pressing an Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) floor vote push by 29 April, citing the absence of any presidential instrument anchoring the campaign . Lisa Murkowski has drafted an Iran AUMF. The five energy PDs are the clearest single demonstration that the signing apparatus was available the day before the ceasefire expired, and that it was pointed somewhere else.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

President Trump signed five orders on 20 April telling the US government to help build up America's ability to produce oil, natural gas, coal, and electricity more quickly. These orders use a law called the Defense Production Act, originally written for wartime manufacturing, to direct government money and contracts towards energy production. Notably, none of these orders mentioned Iran. Despite a 52-day war with Iran that has disrupted global oil flows, Trump has signed zero orders specifically about Iran. The orders signed on 20 April are about American domestic energy supply, not about the conflict. This matters because it means the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz; one of the world's most important oil shipping routes; has no signed presidential document behind it. It operates through military orders rather than laws, which creates legal and political uncertainty.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The zero-instrument gap reflects a specific structural choice: any Iran-tagged executive instrument creates a Federal Register entry that starts formal Congressional notification under the WPR framework. The administration has opted to operate through CENTCOM orders, which are classified, rather than public executive instruments that would trigger the 60-day clock's notification requirements.

The five DPA energy determinations on 20 April follow the same pattern: they are real mobilisation instruments, not performance, but they were selected precisely because they do not touch Iran and therefore do not create WPR exposure. The administration has created a coherent legal structure around the blockade that avoids any instrument requiring Congressional reporting; at the cost of operating with no civilian legal authority that could survive a court challenge.

What could happen next?
  • Risk

    Operating a naval blockade without a signed presidential instrument means any court challenge to CENTCOM's Hormuz enforcement actions has no positive executive authority to cite; the blockade rests on classified orders and appropriations, not a legal framework that can be publicly defended.

  • Opportunity

    The DPA LNG determination allows the Department of Energy to sign 20-year off-take contracts with US terminal operators by 1 July 2026, potentially unlocking $40-60 billion in private LNG infrastructure investment during the Hormuz disruption window.

First Reported In

Update #75 · Ceasefire ends in the water, a day early

The White House· 21 Apr 2026
Read original
Causes and effects
Different Perspectives
North Korea / DPRK
North Korea / DPRK
ISW confirmed the first mounting of DPRK Type-75 MLRS on Russian autonomous UGVs near Kharkiv on 7 June, the latest step in a supply axis that escalated from shells in 2023 to troops in 2024. Pyongyang gains live battlefield data on its ordnance and on Russia's uncrewed-systems programme.
IAEA / Rafael Grossi
IAEA / Rafael Grossi
Grossi confirmed Chornobyl structural damage with nuclear material metres away and could not attribute the ZNPP 15-hour blackout during the agreed repair window. Six ceasefires brokered and broken at ZNPP, compounded by Rosatom's May attack on IAEA neutrality, have eroded his ability to enforce the windows he negotiates.
Emmanuel Macron / France
Emmanuel Macron / France
Macron co-signed the E3 framework whose line-of-contact baseline marks Europe's first formal acceptance that 1991 borders are not the opening position. France's role carries weight because Macron had previously proposed a European force for Ukraine, and the framework's multinational force point is the vehicle for that.
Keir Starmer / E3
Keir Starmer / E3
Starmer, Macron and Merz met Zelenskyy on 7 June and backed a five-point framework taking the line of contact as the talks baseline, conceding roughly one fifth of Ukraine in exchange for a multinational force and frozen assets. With US mediation ended, the NATO Ankara summit on 7-8 July is the next test.
Vladimir Putin / Kremlin
Vladimir Putin / Kremlin
Putin used SPIEF to reject Zelenskyy's summit letter, citing 'elements of rudeness', and repeated the pre-agreed treaty precondition that has frozen every diplomatic round since May. The SPIEF platform's message of investor confidence was punctured by naval fires visible from St Petersburg, which Moscow declined to dispute in scale.
Ukraine / Unmanned Systems Forces
Ukraine / Unmanned Systems Forces
Commander Brovdi confirmed USF units tracked and set fire to Boikyi at Kronstadt, while Code 9.2 struck the Chonhar Bridge the following day. Ukraine is sequencing strikes for rear-area interdiction and political timing rather than ground gains, trading the Baltic Fleet's home base for the logistics squeeze Russia cannot absorb without rationing its own occupied territory.